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Phillies’ Kapler Creeping up on Showalter in Odds to Be First Manager Fired

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 3:18 PM PDT

The Philly Phanatic on the streets of Philadelphia
Even the Philly Phanatic is confused by manager Gabe Kapler's decision-making. Photo by Douglas Muth (flickr).
  • Gabe Kapler’s decisions are costing the Phillies games. 
  • Shohei Ohtani is almost single-handedly giving Mike Scioscia job security.
  • With Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Oakland all struggling, which manager will be fired first?

When Philadelphia hired forward-thinking Gabe Kapler as manager this off-season, and then sprung for the likes of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana in free agency, the team seemed destined to improve on its humble 66 wins from a season ago.

After a series of terrible decisions from Kapler in the first two weeks of the season, the budding sabermetrician is a better candidate to be the first manager fired than lead his squad on a surprise playoff push.

Kapler’s questionable calls include yanking ace Aaron Nola with a 5-0 lead after just 68 pitches, using 18 pitchers in the first three games (including shortstop Pedro Florimon), playing right fielder Nick Williams so shallow that he was almost on the infield, and last but not least, calling for a reliever who hadn’t even started to warm up.

Kapler was so bad that he was actually booed when the team returned to Philadelphia for its home opener.

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If the Phillies don’t turn things around quickly, could Kapler actually get canned just weeks or months into his first big-league job?

The most-recent odds from online sportsbooks on who will be the first manager fired didn’t have him as the favorite, but did have him on the board, and he’s the only first-year manager who found himself there.

First Manager Fired Odds

MANAGER ODDS
Buck Showalter (Orioles) +150
Bob Melvin (Athletics) +300
Bryan Price (Reds) +300
Mike Matheny (Cardinals) +700
Don Mattingly (Marlins) +900
Gabe Kapler (Phillies) +1000
Mike Scioscia (Angels) +1000

Odds as of April 5. 

The sportsbooks have since taken this prop down, and with good reason. The MLB landscape has already changed drastically.

Showalter and the Orioles just pulled off a big series win on the road against the Yankees, giving him a modicum of security.

Mattingly and the Marlins, even at 3-6, are playing better than expectations. (Their league-worst -28 run differential is almost entirely due to a 20-1 blowout against Kapler’s Phillies.)

And Scioscia’s Angels are the talk of the town, thanks to a 7-3 start powered by Shohei Ohtani’s arm and bat.

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Meanwhile, Kapler continues to make dubious calls in Philadelphia. Case in point: lifting starter Jake Arrieta in the fourth inning of a 3-3 game against the Marlins, a game the Phillies would go onto lose 6-3.

Should Gabe be the new favorite?

Not so fast. It’s almost unheard of for a manager to be fired this early into his first season, and a few of the other early contenders are trending down.

The Athletics and Reds are struggling mightily, so Melvin and Price are worthy of their positions at the top. Matheny and the Cardinals – a franchise that won’t tolerate losing for long – are already three games back in the NL Central, ahead of only Melvin’s Reds. If they continue to languish under .500, expect to hear Matheny’s name a lot around the water cooler. Or whatever the modern-day version of the water cooler is. (A Keurig single-serve coffee machine? A Himalayan salt lamp?)

So even though Kapler has unquestionably been the worst manager in the bigs this season, bank on someone else’s neck finding the chopping block first.

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