NL Central-Leading Chicago Cubs Now Have 3rd Best Odds to Win NL Pennant

• The Chicago Cubs lead the NL Central with a 28-18 record
• They now have odds of +530 to win the NL Pennant
• Chicago has won the NL Central in two of the last three seasons

You take one look at the Chicago Cubs and you’re reminded of how quickly people forget. When Chicago won the 2016 World Series, projections of a dynasty in the making were thrown about.

Chicago has made the playoffs in the two years since winning it all. Last year, the Cubbies lost the division title to the Milwaukee  Brewers in a playoff and then exited the postseason via a loss to the Colorado Rockies in the National League Wild Card Game.

The Cubs are 15-6 since April 27th and the sportsbooks are taking notice. Chicago’s average NL Pennant odds improved from +660 on May 6th to +530 on May 22nd.

2019 National League Pennant Odds

*Odds taken on 05/22/19

At the beginning of the season, Chicago was listed at odds of +800 to capture the NL Pennant.

Cubs Display Flair For Dramatic

When Javy Baez clouted a ninth-inning pinch-hit run-scoring single on Tuesday for a 3-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, it was Chicago’s fourth walk-off win since May 7th.

El mago – RT @Cubs: Our 5th walk-off win of the season and the 2nd career walk-off RBI for @javy23baez!#EverybodyIn pic.twitter.com/K4vnUddHAb

— John Cusack (@johncusack) May 22, 2019

The Cubs have recorded an MLB-best five walkoff victories. They are 9-6 in one-run games and 13-6 in the month of May.

About That Bullpen

One of the reasons why Chicago has ended up in so many walkoff situations is because the bullpen has ignited blazes instead of putting them out.

Well Cubs got a closer. His name is Javy Baez.

— jordan cornette (@jordancornette) May 22, 2019

Tuesday’s win marked the third game in a week that Cubs relievers have squandered a lead. The Chicago bullpen has blown nine saves, tied for second in the MLB. Their 50% save conversion rate is tied for 27th in baseball.

A look at the Cubs bullpen performance over the last week:

25 IP
32 H
14 ER
11 BB
4 HR
15 K

That's a 5.04 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and just 5.4 K/9.

— Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) May 22, 2019

The hope is that when Pedro Strop returns to the lineup from a hamstring injury, he’ll be able to stop the bleeding, but that may be a delusional embrace. Strop has posted a 5.06 ERA in 12 appearances this year, with an alarming 2.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Beating the Big Boys

Chicago has fared well in head-to-head meetings with the other top NL Pennant contenders. The Cubbies took two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers and split two games with the Phillies.

🚨 POWER RANKINGS🚨
Eric Karros' Top 5 MLB Lineups
1. Houston @astros
2. Los Angeles @Dodgers
3. Chicago @Cubs
4. Minnesota @Twins
5. Atlanta @Braves pic.twitter.com/yNzBfe6VZJ

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 21, 2019

Against the rugged NL Central, perhaps baseball’s deepest division, they own a 9-6 mark.

Playing with Fire

When you consider that the Dodgers have never won three pennants in a row, odds are against LA winning this year. You can most certainly make a case for the Cubs based on what’s transpired so far in 2019.

Woke up to let one of our dogs out -+ can’t fall back asleep. Dog is snoring BTW. Thought on @Cubs. Staying afloat w/rotation & offense. But bullpen is lousy + will kill them if not addressed. After MLB draft go get Kimbrel. Trade for 1 more arm. #NoExcuses #YouHaveTheMoney 💰👀

— David Kaplan (@thekapman) May 22, 2019

There are alarming signs, though. They lack a reliable closer. While all those walkoff wins are exciting, generally, those things tend to even up over the course of a season.

Unless Chicago can trade for a legitimate closer, the Phillies remain a better play.