With Playoff Field Set, Who’s the Best Value in the NL? Dodgers (-120) Favored; Brewers (+820) the Longshot
- The five teams participating in the NL Playoffs are set
- St. Louis and Milwaukee are still battling for the Central Division title
- Who should you bet to reach the 2019 World Series out of the National League?
The MLB playoffs begin Tuesday, October 1, with the National League Wild Card game. The Nationals will play either the Brewers or Cardinals, whichever team does not win the NL Central. The winner of the Wild Card game will face the Dodgers in the Division Series, while the NL Central champ will battle the Braves.
While the matchups are not yet set, NL Pennant odds are available. Let’s look at the updated numbers and see what value is present.
Odds to Win 2019 National League Pennant
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves | +350 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +500 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +650 |
| Washington Nationals | +650 |
*Odds taken 09/27/19.
The Favorite: Dodgers
Entering the final series of the regular season, LA’s +255 run differential is more than 120 runs better than the next-best NL squad. The Dodgers are both the highest-scoring team in the National League, and have given up the fewest runs.
The Dodgers will have homefield advantage throughout the NL playoffs, and possibly for the entire postseason. They have the second-best home mark in baseball this season.
LA is loaded everywhere you look. They have four bench players with 10 home runs this year, and regulars like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson create a potent middle of the lineup. Justin Turner and Corey Seager are tough customers, and the offense, as good as it is, often doesn’t need to do the heavy lifting.
On the mound, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Hyun-Jin Ryu make for a difficult-to-touch trio,. Depth arms like Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin give manager Dave Roberts lots of options to mix and match.
Playoff baseball often comes down to matchups. The Dodgers have the deepest team in the field, at the plate, and on the mound, and that means they always have an answer.
Top Contender: Braves
The clear-cut second best team in the NL, Atlanta has an outside shot at 100 wins and hasn’t needed to play an “A” game since their lead in the East Division has been secured for at least a month.
Aside from the Dodgers, Atlanta has scored more runs than any other team in the NL. You can credit that in large part to four players with WAR ratings of 4.6 or better. Freddie Freeman has had an incredible season, yet Ronald Acuna Jr has been even better. Ozzie Albies and Josh Donaldson create a quartet that is difficult to match up against.
On the mound, the Braves are set up decently for the postseason. They have an ace in Mike Soroka, while Julio Teheran, Max Fried, and Dallas Keuchel are a reliable four-man rotation. Trade deadline pickups Mark Melancon and Shane Greene have drastically improved the bullpen.
Atlanta has a team of pros throughout the lineup and rotation. If the Dodgers stumble, they will take advantage.
Longshots: St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
Because the Nats and either the Cardinals or Brewers will play in a 50/50 Wild Card Game, they need to bet getting sizable odds to be value plays at this stage.
The Central Division-winner will have two huge advantages: avoiding the toss up one game elimination, and playing Atlanta rather than Los Angeles.
St. Louis enters the final weekend of the year with a one-game edge on Milwaukee and holds the tiebreaker, so if the teams are tied at the end of the regular season, a one-game playoff for the division title would be held at Busch Stadium.
However, the Cards are only around a .500 team on the road and would not have home-field advantage against the Braves. Their top position players this season, Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong, don’t scare you.
Paul Goldschmidt has had a very nice second half, and Jack Flaherty is an emerging star on the mound, but to trust Adam Wainwright at this stage in his career, or the wildly inconsistent Miles Mikolas, we would need a bigger price.
The Bet: Atlanta (+350)
Nobody gets excited about wagering on an even-money favorite, and there is good reason for that. The Dodgers are the most-likely NL Champ, but the odds are silly. They need to get out of two series to reach the World Series and the odds say they have a 50% chance of doing that. Analytics disagree.
While LA won four of six from Atlanta this year, the Braves triumphed in the last two meetings.
The Braves are clearly the second-best team in the NL, but the odds available are three-and-a-half times as high as LA. They present value. If you look at the rosters, they are only marginally worse than LA. While LA won four of six from Atlanta this year, the Braves triumphed in the last two meetings.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
