NL Pennant Odds Are Basically Dodgers vs the Field; Is LAD That Much Better Than the Braves, Cubs, Phillies?

• The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the NL West by 14 games and own an MLB-best 59-29 record
• The Dodgers are +120, on average, to represent the NL in the World Series
• Are they really that much better than the rest of the National League?

In the National League, there’s the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then there’s everybody else.

At 59-29, the Dodgers own baseball’s best record. They have a virtually insurmountable 14-game lead atop the NL West. For all intents and purposes, the Dodgers look to be headed toward their third successive NLCS title. That’s certainly the way the top sportsbooks view the matter.

Across a variety of the leading books, LA sits with average NL Pennant odds of +120.

2019 NL Pennant Odds

*Odds taken on 07/04/19. Follow link for complete list.

The Atlanta Braves have the second-shortest odds behind LA at +380. No other NL team has average odds shorter than +950.

Dodgers Be Crushing It

Are the Dodgers as dominant as both their record and the futures odds suggest? The underlying numbers back up their ostensible strength.

LA’s +132 run differential is +78 better than the next-best team in the NL (again the Braves at +52). According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers have a stellar 38.9-percent chance of winning the NL pennant, with Atlanta at just 18.2%.

Individually, Cody Bellinger has MLB’s best WAR (6.8) and is also on top in OPS (1.148), and total bases (215). Hyun-Jin Ryu leads baseball with a 1.83 ERA and the best strikeout-to-walks ratio (13.429) in the game. Ryu is also getting it done at the plate. He leads the majors with nine sacrifice hits.

.@Cody_Bellinger has tied Duke Snider (1955) and Gil Hodges (1951) for the most HR (28) by a @Dodgers player before the All-Star break. pic.twitter.com/cCWMaF19uW

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) July 4, 2019

Ryu, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler were all named to the NL All-Star team. It’s just the fifth time in two decades that one team has had three starting pitchers on the same All-Star squad.

Reliever Julio Urias (2.50 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) hasn’t allowed a run in 17 innings over his last seven appearances, providing stability to what had been an underperforming bullpen.

About That Road Record

The friendly confines of Chavez Ravine have provided LA with a stellar 36-9 home record thus far this season. It’s a virtual lock that the Dodgers will earn home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs.

What could there possibly be to worry about?

The #Dodgers’ home winning percentage: .800.

Number of teams in National League history to finish a season with a home winning percentage of .800: 0.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) July 4, 2019

Well, for starters, LA’s road record. The Dodgers are 23-20 away from home. They’re far from the same dominant club we see in Los Angeles. And history says that matters.

Last season, the World Series-champion Boston Red Sox were 51-30 away from Fenway Park. In 2017, the World Series-champion Houston Astros sported a 53-28 road mark.

It’s A Braves New World

The Dodgers have accomplished many achievements over their storied history. But they’ve never gone to three World Series in a row. In fact, in MLB history, only the 1923 New York Yankees returned to the Fall Classic after losing the previous two.

Since @austinriley1308 played in his first @MLB game, the @Braves have brought the 💪. pic.twitter.com/dLnVCWSNvq

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) July 4, 2019

The Braves are steadily picking up steam. They won 20 games in June and lead the NL with 26 road victories.

Sure, LA is currently #1. But ask the Milwaukee Bucks, or the Tampa Bay Lightning, or the Kansas City Chiefs how that worked out for them in the long run.

Take the price and play the Braves to reach the World Series at about triple the payout.