Odds Against Josh Donaldson Being Dealt by MLB Trade Deadline

• The Atlanta Braves won the National League East last season, going 90-72
• Josh Donaldson was named the American League MVP in 2015
• Donaldson struggled through a calf injury last season, playing just 52 games

The Atlanta Braves made waves in the offseason when the inked former MVP Josh Donaldson to a one-year, $23 million contract. They hope he helps propel them to new heights, but if things go sour, could the Braves move him?

There has been posted odds as to whether Donaldson will be traded by the 2019 deadline.

Will Josh Donaldson Be Traded by July 31st?

*Odds taken 03/17/19 

Donaldson Bets on Himself

There’s no question that Josh Donaldson is betting on himself with this type of a contract. He definitely could have found a multi-year contract on the market, but instead decided to take a big payday for one year in hopes of landing a bigger, longer contract next offseason.

It was close but you voted @BringerofRain20’s ALCS home run as your favourite moment where he brought the rain! ☔️☔️☔️ #NationalUmbrellaDay pic.twitter.com/duncRTV6wU

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) February 11, 2017

Donaldson struggled last season, hitting just .246 on the season with just eight home runs and 23 RBI’s. That’s a huge drop from 2017, when he batted .270, had 33 home runs and 78 RBIs. Remember, though, that he was hampered by a calf injury in 2018 that limited him to just 52 games.

Donaldson Not Likely to Be Traded

When thinking about this prop, I think about two scenarios for both the player and the team: the Braves could be competitive or not, and Donaldson could struggle or return to form. The only scenario where I see Donaldson being traded is if he is playing well and the Braves are not.

If the Braves are competitive, they’ll keep him. Even if he struggles early, if they are in contention for a National League East crown around the end of July, it makes sense to keep the asset to see if he turns it around later in the season.

Josh Donaldson with the 2-RUN HOME RUN!!!! #Jays

pic.twitter.com/bdt180s7rR

— Around The Bases POD (@AroundBasesPOD) June 11, 2017

If Donaldson struggles, the team will likely be forced to keep him. Nobody will want to trade for this contract as it will now mark two straight seasons where he’s disappointed. It’s possible that someone is interested in him as a rental, but if he’s not able to help this contender, why would another want him?

If Donaldson plays well and the Braves are a disaster, that’s the one scenario where I can see him getting moved.

If Donaldson plays well and the Braves are a disaster, that’s the one scenario where I can see him getting moved. In that case, a contender might want to add a quality veteran on an expiring contract. Donaldson would be a good bat who they don’t have to commit to long-term.

Much Depends on How the Braves Perform

With that in mind, that begs the question as to how good the Braves will be? Atlanta won the division last year with 90 wins but they had one of the youngest teams in the majors. They have a ton of pitching talent, so even if their starters struggle, others could step in and perform well.

“Albies and Acuña.” Get used to hearing that, Braves Country!#ChopOn pic.twitter.com/3rAPAXNzXY

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 17, 2018

FanGraphs projects that they’ll slip a little bit but still be competitive, falling to 84-78. Meanwhile, the PECOTA projections also see them in that same neighborhood, finishing with about 85 wins.

Donaldson is one year removed from a campaign where he produced 33 home runs while slashing .270/.385/.559. He’s probably got a big chip on his shoulder and has landed in a good situation. I’d be more inclined to bet that the Braves are a quality team, that he performs well and they don’t trade him.

Pick: No (-400)