This MLB Longshot Could Cash in as World Series Champions at +4300 Odds
- The long-awaited 2020 MLB regular season is fast approaching
- Teams will play just 60 regular-season games, making it an incredibly hard season to predict
- A few longshots have every reason to fancy their chances as World Series contenders; which one is built for a Cinderella run?
Randomness, hot streaks, and over-performance are more relevant than ever as MLB nears the start of its 60-game regular season. As we view the 2020 World Series odds, attention must go beyond the favorites.
It goes without saying that this season is like no other. A full 162-game season makes it very hard for the outsiders to force their way into the playoffs. A 60-game season is completely different. A purple patch can change the course of this season more so than usual, which makes certain longshot teams very interesting betting options.
The focus here is on one of those outsiders: the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are priced at +4300 to win it all at FanDuel.
2020 World Series Odds
| Team | Odds at Fan Duel |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +380 |
| New York Yankees | +400 |
| Houston Astros | +800 |
| Atlanta Braves | +1400 |
| Minnesota Twins | +1500 |
| … | … |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +4300 |
| Boston Red Sox | +4300 |
| San Diego Padres | +4600 |
Odds taken Jul. 14.
Toppling the Dodgers
The National League West has been dominated by the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won seven consecutive division titles. LA won 106 games last year, finishing 21 clear of second-placed Arizona.
It looks like an insurmountable lead. The NL West would likely be the least competitive division in baseball if this were a 162-game season. This shortened season creates opportunities.
The Dodgers played .500 ball through their first 60 in 2018. They ultimately won over 90 games that year, but a similarly slow start will open up the West for a team like the Diamondbacks to make a run.
Arizona went 14-6 in interleague games last season. The D-backs are capable of similar success in their 2020 interleague matchups against the AL West.
Balanced Roster
Although not in the market for Anthony Rendon or Gerrit Cole, the Diamondbacks bolstered their roster in the off-season. Trading for Starling Marte and signing Madison Bumgarner were the highlights.
Their pitching, according to Fangraphs’ projections, is the weakness. Depth Charts has the D-backs giving up 4.86 runs per game. In Luke Weaver, Robbie Ray, and Zac Gallen, though, they have upside aplenty.
Gallen and Weaver have the talent to be All-Star-level starters, and Ray has shown in the past that he can dominate for prolonged periods. Mike Leake’s decision to opt out hurts their depth, but Merrill Kelly proved last year that he is solid enough to give them innings when required.
Bumgarner might not be the pitcher he was, but with his postseason record (including the 2014 World Series MVP), no team will want to face him in the playoffs. That experience is invaluable, and we’ve seen how Bumgarner can put a franchise on his back.
Junior Guerra and Hector Rendon add to a bullpen that ranked 11th in save percentage last season and was the best in MLB at stranding runners.
The arrival of Marte allows his namesake Ketel to move back to the infield. Christian Walker and Jake Lamb will share the first and DH roles.
Eduardo Escobar, one of the game’s most underrated hitters, is coming off a 3.4 bWAR season. Escobar had a .697 OPS in September 2019, but he started the year strongly (over .900 OPS in the first two months) – another good start is important.
Strong End to 2019
If it’s possible to carry momentum from one season to another, particularly after the delayed start, then Arizona should be in a good spot.
They played their best baseball in the last two months of the 2019 season, going 31-22. Winning games at that rate over these 60 games will have them right in the mix for their first division title since 2011.
The Dodgers’ supremacy makes it easy to forget about the other teams in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have no gaping holes on their roster and, with the Rockies and Giants potentially struggling, their schedule could be much more favorable than others in the Central or East.
Wild Card contention is probable, and a push for the division isn’t an unreasonable expectation. Get to the postseason and anything is possible, especially when you’ve got Bumgarner.
At +4300, even a minimal $2 wager would return an $86 profit.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
