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Orioles vs Red Sox Odds & Picks (Sep. 26)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 25, 2022 · 7:28 PM PDT

Rougned Odor celebration
Sep 25, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Rougned Odor (12) rects after hitting a rbi single in the tenth inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Orioles vs Red Sox odds favor Boston as -130 moneyline favorites on Monday (Sept. 26) at 7:10 pm ET
  • Baltimore will give the ball to Jordan Lyles (11-11, 4.50 ERA), while Boston will counter with Connor Seabold (0-3, 10.47 ERA)
  • Read below for the Orioles vs Red Sox odds and betting prediction

Time is not on the Baltimore Orioles (79-72, 35-39 away) side. They sit four games out of the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League, and just blew a glorious opportunity to close the gap. The Orioles coughed up a two-run lead in the 9th inning on Saturday to lose to Houston, and then fell in extra innings to the Astros on Sunday.

Now, with just 10 games remaining, they’ll try to make a desperate run to close out the season, starting with a four-game set in Boston versus the Red Sox (72-79, 37-37 home). Game 1 of that series goes on Monday, and Baltimore will be assuming the underdog role.

Orioles vs Red Sox Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Baltimore Orioles +110 +1.5 (-175) Ov 9.5 (-110)
Boston Red Sox -130 -1.5 (+150) Un 9.5 (-110)

Odds as of September 25 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.

Boston opened up as a -130 moneyline favorite, in a contest that features a total of 9.5. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass, with cloudy skies and 68 degree temperatures in the forecast.

 

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Baltimore vs Boston Probable Pitchers

The Orioles couldn’t have asked for a more favorable matchup on the opposing mound. The Red Sox will trot out Connor Seabold and his 10.47 ERA. The 26-year-old has been hit extremely hard in limited duty this season, and his last two results were no different.

Seabold has surrendered 15 hits and 11 runs over his past 7.2 innings. He’s failed to make it past the 5th inning in any of his four starts, and didn’t make it out of the third inning in his last outing at Fenway Park. Opponents are hitting .395 against him in 2022, after he surrendered a .300 average in 2021.

Lyles vs Seabold Stats

Jordan Lyles
VS
Connor Seabold
11-11 Record 0-3
4.50 ERA 10.47
1.39 WHIP 2.20
.277 OBA .395
2.7 SO/W Ratio 2.8

Baltimore will counter with Jordan Lyles. The veteran righty threw a complete game three-hitter in his last start against Detroit, but has been a train wreck versus Boston this season.

Lyles has an ERA of 8.00 in four meetings with the Red Sox so far. He’s yielded 32 hits and 16 runs over 18 innings, while current Boston hitters have a ridiculous track record of success against him.

In 110 at-bats, the Red Sox are batting .327 versus Lyles, with a .473 slugging percentage and .835 OPS.

Orioles vs Red Sox Betting Trends

Prior to blowing those two games on the weekend, Baltimore had won three straight. The O’s pitching had been the catalyst, yielding only one run and posting two shutouts, while the offense scored 16 times. The offense stayed hot on Saturday with a 10-run effort, but cooled down on Sunday producing just one run until the 10th inning.

They’re slashing .252/.321/.372 over the past week and have been extremely productive at Fenway Park this season. They’re averaging six runs per game in Boston, with a .464 slugging percentage and .799 OPS.

Boston on the other hand, enters play ice cold. They’re no longer a factor in the playoff picture, and have dropped five straight. Their offense has been good enough to win games, slashing .278/.364/.493 over the last week, but the pitching staff has not held up its end of the bargain.

The Red Sox boast a team ERA of 4.76 over the last week, while allowing at least five runs in seven of their past 10 outings.

BAL vs BOS Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
9/11/22 Red Sox Orioles BOS, 1-0
9/10/22 Red Sox Orioles BOS, 17-4
9/9/22 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 3-2
8/21/22 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 5-3
8/20/22 Red Sox Orioles BOS, 4-3
8/19/22 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 15-10
8/11/22 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 4-3
5/30/22 Orioles Red Sox BAL, 10-0
5/29/22 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 12-2
5/28/22 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 4-2

Orioles vs Red Sox Pick

From this point forward every game for the Orioles is a must win. The margin for error for trying to overcome a four-game deficit with only 10 contests left is so small, that every outing must be treated like a playoff game.

The extra incentive for a young, hungry team is hard to quantify, but what we do know is that the Red Sox aren’t playing for anything at this point. They’ll be giving some of their younger players longer looks, like Seabold, and that’s something Baltimore can take advantage of.

This game should be a pick’em at worst, and the fact that we’re getting plus money to bet the Orioles makes our decision very easy. Back the team that has their season on the line.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (+110)

 

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