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Orioles vs Yankees Odds, Lines & Picks (Sep. 30)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 29, 2022 · 7:28 PM PDT

Aaron Judge home run celebration
Sep 28, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge (99) celebrates with New York Yankees shortstop Oswald Peraza (91) after hitting his 61st home run scoring two runs against the Toronto Blue Jays during the seventh inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Orioles vs Yankees odds favor New York as -190 moneyline favorites on Friday (Sept. 30) at 7:05 pm ET
  • Baltimore will give the ball to Jordan Lyles (11-11, 4.55 ERA), while New York will counter with Domingo German (2-3, 3.30 ERA)
  • Read below for the Orioles vs Yankees odds and betting prediction

The Baltimore Orioles (80-76, 36-42 away) blew it. They were within striking distance of the final AL Wild Card spot entering the week, but now they’re all but eliminated. Baltimore is fresh off dropping three straight in Boston, and five of their past six overall, and are now 4.5 games back of Seattle with only six games to play.

Things won’t get any easier on Friday, as they travel to the Bronx to face the AL East champion Yankees (96-59, 56-22 home). New York has dominated their division rival so far this season, and oddsmakers expect that trend to continue.

Orioles vs Yankees Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Baltimore Orioles +160 +1.5 (-125) O 8.5 (-115)
New York Yankees -190 -1.5 (+105) U 8.5 (-105)

Odds as of September 29 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.

The Yankees are -190 moneyline favorites on Friday in a contest that features a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 pm ET at Yankee Stadium, with clear skies and 67 degree game time temperatures on deck.

 

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Baltimore vs New York Probable Pitchers

New York, the number three contender in the World Series odds, will give the ball to Domingo German. The 30-year-old is teetering on the edge of the playoff rotation, but will likely be the odd man out once the postseason starts.

He’s pitched fairly well since returning from injury in July, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 59.2 innings of work. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his past 12 outings, and has an excellent track record against the Orioles lineup.

German has held current Baltimore batters to four hits over 25 career at-bats, striking out six, while walking just one.

Lyles vs German Stats

Jordan Lyles
VS
Domingo German
11-11 Record 2-3
4.55 ERA 3.30
1.41 WHIP 1.12
.280 OBA .232
2.6 SO/W Ratio 3.1

The O’s will counter with Jordan Lyles. The 31-year-old started Monday night in Boston, but after allowing 5 hits and two runs in 2 innings prior to a rain delay, the O’s elected not to bring him back out.

Lyles has been inconsistent to say the least this season, trading brilliant outings with brutal ones. He’s struggled against the Yankees in five starts, allowing 31 hits and 17 runs in 28.2 innings of work. The former New Yorker has fared especially bad at Yankee Stadium, giving up 12 hits, 10 runs, and five homers over 11.1 innings.

Current New York batters are slugging .508 off him over 120 at-bats, with an .886 OPS.

Orioles vs Yankees Betting Trends

While Baltimore is slumping, New York is rolling. The Yankees have won nine of their last 10, fuelled by a red hot offense. Aaron Judge is now one home run away from number 62, and a new Bronx Bombers record, while the AL MVP odds favorite has mashed versus O’s pitching.

Judge is hitting .397 versus Baltimore this season, with 9 home runs, 19 RBI, a .931 slugging percentage, and a 1.384 OPS. As a team New York is batting .276 over the past week, averaging 6.3 runs per contest.

The O’s on the other hand, have performed fine at the plate during their recent slide, but have been abysmal on the mound. Baltimore pitchers have a 5.09 ERA over the past two weeks, and a 1.30 WHIP. They’ve been even worse at Yankee Stadium so far this season, yielding 40 runs to New York in just six games. To no one’s surprise given those numbers, is the fact that they are 1-5 in the Bronx this season.

BAL vs NYY Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
7/24/22 Yankees Orioles NYY, 6-0
7/23/22 Yankees Orioles BAL, 6-3
7/22/22 Yankees Orioles NYY, 7-6
5/25/22 Orioles Yankees NYY, 2-0
5/24/22 Orioles Yankees NYY, 7-6
5/23/22 Orioles Yankees BAL, 6-4
5/19/22 Yankees Orioles BAL, 9-6
5/18/22 Yankees Orioles NYY, 3-2
5/17/22 Yankees Orioles NYY, 5-4
5/16/22 Yankees Orioles NYY, 6-2

Orioles vs Yankees Pick

Baltimore is actually just 5-11 all season versus New York, surrendering at least five runs 10 times. Given how the Yanks are swinging the bats, and Lyles’ track record in the Bronx, I like targeting New York to put up multiple runs early.

They’re plus-money to score at least three times in the first 5 innings, which is very appealing. Only two teams average more runs over the first 5 innings than the Yankees, and they just happen to be Houston and the LA Dodgers, the only clubs with shorter World Series odds than New York.

Pick: New York Yankees Over 2.5 runs First 5 Innings (+100) 

 

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