Padres vs Phillies Game 3 Odds, Picks & Probable Pitchers

• In the Padres vs Phillies Game 3 odds, San Diego is a -115 road favorite over Philadelphia on Friday, October 21
• Philadelphia, 2-0 straight up at home in the postseason, is hosting an NLCS game for the first time since 2010
• In MLB best-of-seven series, the Game 3 winner has captured the series 67 of 97 times (69%)

Historically speaking, there is nearly a 70% chance that the winner of Game 3 of the NLCS between the San Diego Padres (6-3, 3-2 away) and Philadelphia Phillies (6-2, 2-0 home) will be going to the World Series.

In MLB postseason history, the Game 3 winner goes on to win a best-of-seven series 69% of the time (67-of-97). This set is deadlocked at 1-1 as they switch locales to the City of Brotherly Love.

Since moving to Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are 6-2 SU in home NLCS games. However, this is the first time Philadelphia will be playing host to an NLCS game since 2010.

Oddsmakers are putting up the visiting Padres as -115 road favorites. San Diego is 3-2 SU as an away team in the 2022 MLB playoffs.

Padres vs Phillies Odds

Odds as of October 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get a Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.

At moneyline odds of -115, the Padres have an implied probability of victory of 53.49% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on San Diego would create a payout of $18.70.

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First pitch at Citizen Bank Park goes at 7:37pm ET on Friday, October 21. The weather forecast is calling for clear skies with 6 mph wind and a temperature of 63 degrees. Both clubs are given equal -110 odds to take this set and advance in the MLB playoff bracket. The Padres winning the series in seven games is the +360 chalk in a series correct score wager.

MLB betting trends are displaying that the public is uncertain where to put their money on Game 3. On the runline, the Padres are getting 62% of handle, but the Phillies are drawing 59% of betting action. Both teams are garnering 50% of moneyline handle. Public betting splits on moneyline bets are leaning ever so slightly to San Diego at 52%. In terms of the total, this is the one wager upon which the public seems somewhat certain. Both 57% of handle and 63% of bets are backing the over.

In the World Series odds, bettors can also access similar +375 betting lines on both teams.

San Diego vs Philadelphia Probable Pitchers

In the MLB lineups, right-hander Joe Musgrove gets the ball for San Diego. In two postseason starts he’s allowed just two earned runs over 13 innings of work for a 1.38 ERA.

Joe Musgrove before Game 3:

"I almost like pitching on the road a little more than I do pitching at home.

Something about kind of having your back up against the wall and having everyone weighing down on you…something about that allows me to tap into a different level."

— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) October 20, 2022

Musgrove got the win in a 6-0 shutout of the Mets in Game 3 of the NLWS. It was a masterful performance. He struck out five and allowed one hit over seven innings of work. He also started the NLDS clincher against the Dodgers. Musgrove struck out eight in six innings.

NL All-Star Musgrove is in the top 10% of NL pitchers in exit velocity (86.4). He’s 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA in nine MLB postseason appearances.

Musgrove vs Suarez Stats

Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez will be taking the mound for his second MLB postseason start. Suarez was uncharacteristically wild in his start in Game 1 of the NLDS against Atlanta. He walked a career-high five batters, but wiggled out of jams, allowing just one run over 3.1 innings of work.

Ranger Suarez and Joe Musgrove faced off once in 2022. The result of that game? A 6-2 Phillies win.

Suarez: 7.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Musgrove: 6 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

We shall see how round two goes

— The Good Phight – x (@TheGoodPhight) October 20, 2022

Suarez was struggling coming into the playoffs. He finished the regular season with back-to-back losses, allowing nine runs over eight innings. He hasn’t tasted defeat at home, though, since June 29. He’s 3-0 in five home starts since and the Phillies are 5-0 in his last five home starts.

Suarez is 1-0 in his career against San Diego with a 2.45 ERA. He allowed two earned runs to the Padres over 7.1 innings in a 6-2 victory on June 23. And the win was against Musgrove.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper is riding a seven-game hit streak, three shy of the Phillies postseason record. But he’s just 3-for-14 (.214) when facing Musgrove. Nick Castellanos is 5-for-18 (.278) with a homer and three RBI. Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto have also homered off of Musgrove.

“WE AINT LOSING” — Bryce Harper pic.twitter.com/piPOyy9ADR

— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) October 15, 2022

San Diego’s Austin Nola is 2-for-4 (.500) with a double off of Suarez. Manny Machado (1-for-2) is also a .500 hitter against Suarez. Josh Bell has taken Suarez deep.

Padres vs Phillies Prediction

The deeper this series goes, the more the pitching advantage swings to the Padres. San Diego’s three (Musgrove) and four (Mike Clevinger) starters are just as good as the Game 1 (Yu Darvish) and Game 2 (Blake Snell) starters.

The @Padres have scored SEVEN unanswered runs! #postseason pic.twitter.com/d4TysVsDgM

— MLB (@MLB) October 19, 2022

The Padres also displayed the explosiveness in attack they can unleash. In two of the last three games, they’ve produced a five-run inning.

Pick: San Diego Padres ML (-115)