Padres Win Total Reopens at 78.5 After Signing Machado
- The San Diego Padres finished last in the NL West in 2018 with a 66-96 record
- Manny Machado signed with the Padres in free agency for 10 years and $300 million
- The Dodgers and Rockies are projected as the best teams in the NL West again in 2019
Manny Machado signing with the San Diego Padres has been the biggest shock of the off-season. The reality of the situation though, is the Padres are still facing an uphill climb in the division. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies are the cream of the crop in the NL West and despite the Machado signing the team’s 2019 win totals haven’t moved very much.
San Diego Padres Projected 2019 Win Total
| San Diego Padres Projected 2019 Win Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 78.5 | -130 |
| Under 78.5 | +100 |
*Odds taken 02/26/19
Even still, it’s a large ask for a Padres team that won 66 games last year to improve by 13 wins. There are several reasons why the under is the best value play.
It's OFFICIAL! The #Padres have signed Manny Machado to a 10-year contract through the 2028 season. Welcome to San Diego, Manny! https://t.co/zr5ZnD82Sy pic.twitter.com/F8jImsTziD
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) February 21, 2019
NL West Division Creates Tough Path to 79 Wins
The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to dominate the National League and there’s little reason to believe they won’t be strong again this year. Even with the news Clayton Kershaw is having shoulder issues early in camp, the expectation is still that they’ll be a dominant force.
The Dodgers will have their hands full with the Colorado Rockies, who continue to improve and have an intriguing lineup that now includes Daniel Murphy. They also won’t have any questions surrounding superstar Nolan Arenado after he signed a rich new contract.
Rockies, 3B Nolan Arenado agree to a eight-year/$255M extension, per @JeffPassan
The deal gives Arenado the largest per-year salary of any position player pic.twitter.com/9uCOR1b0BZ
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 26, 2019
The Padres also finished behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants last year. While they don’t project to be as good as either the Dodgers or Rockies, they aren’t considerably worse than the Padres. San Diego was 20 games under .500 in the division last year and that number likely won’t change very much.
Going Younger Doesn’t Equal Wins
The Padres seem committed to their youth movement and may even keep super prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. in the Majors to start the year. Burning a year of control to have him start year one has many fans believing he’s ready to dominate right away, but that’s very rarely the case with 20 year old players. Tatis Jr. will be a great player someday, but moving Machado to third to make room for him already seems like it could result in a step backwards, with a clear eye on the future.
#Padres' No. 1 prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. discussed Manny Machado and the @Padres farm system as part of @MLBNetwork's #30Clubs30Days. Speaking of that farm system, it's among out Top 10, which we'll count down Tuesday through Friday: https://t.co/mXKvykS4qa pic.twitter.com/NFZqtLVap2
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 26, 2019
Expect the Padres to Go Under 78.5 Wins
The fact you’re getting +100 odds for an organization that rarely has success and won’t again this year, seems like an inviting opportunity. The Padres may improve slightly, but Machado, or frankly any individual position player, won’t result in a 13-win increase. Hammer the under and enjoy watching San Diego do what they always do, struggle.
Pick: Padres Under 78.5 (+100)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
