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Phillies vs Mets Picks and Odds (April 14)

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 13, 2021 · 10:06 PM PDT

Phillies OF Bryce Harper running the bases.
Bryce Harper jogging off the field. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies are slight road favorites against the New York Mets in game three of their four-game series slated for Wednesday (April 14th, 7:10 pm ET)
  • Zack Wheeler looks to regain the form he showed in his first outing of 2021, while David Peterson tries to avenge an 8-2 loss to the Fightins last Wednesday
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The Philadelphia Phillies are -122 moneyline favorites against their NL East rival New York Mets on Wednesday in the third game of a four-game series. The Hump Day tilt pits Zack Wheeler against David Peterson.

First pitch is set for 7:10 pm ET at Citi Field.

Phillies vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at DraftKings
Philadelphia Phillies -122 -1.5 (+135) Over 8 (-118)
New York Mets +105 +1.5 (-162) Under 8 (-103)

Odds as of April 13th.

Philly will try to win its first game of the series after being swept in a doubleheader Tuesday. Jonathan Villar hit a walk-off single in the eighth inning of game one to give the Mets a 4-3 extra-inning win. Then, Marcus Stroman baffled Joe Girardi’s club in game two as the Mets won 4-0. Stroman went six scoreless innings, scattering four hits and striking out three to push the Amazins over the .500 mark for the first time this season at 4-3.

Now, Bryce Harper and company enter Wednesday’s showdown as slight favorites in the Phillies vs. Mets odds, in a game that features a total of 8.

The big question is whether David Peterson can hold the opponent to three runs or fewer for a fifth straight game. Mets starters have earned quality starts in three of the last four outings — with two of those three being wins. Taijuan Walker went 4.1 innings in the first game of the double-dip Tuesday, allowing only three hits and striking out eight Philly batters.

Peterson will have his hands full with a motivated Philly lineup.

Phillies’ Career Stats vs Peterson

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Andrew McCutchen 3 0 0 0 0 .000
Rhys Hoskins 5 4 2 3 1 .800
Bryce Harper 5 3 0 0 1 .600
JT Realmuto 1 0 0 0 0 .000
Alec Bohm 3 1 1 3 1 .333
Jean Segura 3 1 0 3 2 .333
Didi Gregorius 2 1 0 0 2 .500
Roman Quinn N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Zack Wheeler N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Hoping for a Repeat

The Phillies beat up on Peterson last week, chasing him in the fifth inning after the 25-year-old surrendered back-to-back hits by Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper to start the inning. Mets skipper Luis Rojas inserted Jacob Barnes to put out the fire, but it only got worse as the reliever gave up a three-run shot to JT Realmuto — with the runs by Hoskins and Harper credited to Peterson. 

Before that, it wasn’t much better. as Hoskins and Alec Bohm both took Peterson deep in the first inning — Bohm’s bomb being a three-run jack.

YouTube video

Hoskins has flat-out ownership over the lefty. The first baseman has five career at-bats against Peterson and four hits — all for extra bases (two home runs and two doubles). Neutralizing Hoskins will be the top priority Wednesday.

Mets’ Career Stats vs Wheeler

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Brandon Nimmo 10 2 0 0 1 .200
Francisco Lindor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dominic Smith 9 3 0 1 2 333
Pete Alonso 2 1 0 0 0 500
Jeff McNeil 6 2 0 0 2 .333
Michael Conforto 9 3 0 1 3 .333
Luis Guillorme 3 1 0 2 0 .333
Tomas Nido N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
David Peterson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Amazin Start

Brandon Nimmo stayed hot in Tuesday’s doubleheader, going a combined 3-for-6 with a run scored and driving in three runs. Entering the double-dip, the Mets leadoff man led the majors with a .565 on-base percentage. He drew a walk to start the first inning for the Amazins in game one of the Ernie Banks Special and scored on Dominic Smith’s two-run blast later in the inning. Then, in game two he went 3-for-4. Now, his OBP is a whopping .600 — 76 points higher than any qualifying National League hitter.

Nimmo has the most familiarity with Wheeler in New York’s lineup, going 2-for-10 in his career against the 30-year-old.

Wheeler has been Jekyll and Hyde in his first two starts of 2021. He was filthy against the Braves April 3rd, tossing seven brilliant innings of one-hit ball to go against no walks and ten strikeouts and eventually earned the win in  4-0 Phillies victory.

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But Wheeler was humbled by Atlanta in his second outing, going only 4.2 innings and allowing seven hits and three earned runs while walking four and striking out four. Whichever version of Wheeler shows up will go a long way in deciding Wednesday’s outcome.

Considering Hoskins’ ownage (not to mention Harper’s success) against Peterson, plus my trust in Wheeler over the young southpaw, I’m fading the Mets in this spot.

The pick: Phillies ML -122

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