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MLB Picks Today – Odds and Probable Pitchers for Yankees vs Astros (July 11)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 10, 2021 · 10:21 PM PDT

baseball
Houston Astros' Yordan Alvarez, right, celebrates his three-run home run with Carlos Correa, left, during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics, Tuesday, July 6, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
  • See the best bet in baseball for Sunday, July 11th
  • The Yankees’ Jameson Taillon faces Astros left Framber Valdez in Houston
  • See the odds, trends and prediction for the game below

The New York Yankees will try to sweep a three-game road series from the Houston Astros when the teams meet at 2:10 p.m. ET Sunday prior to Major League Baseball taking a four-day break in its schedule for the All-Star Game.

The Yankees (46-42) have won five of their last six games, including blanking the Astros 4-0 on Friday night and 1-0 on Saturday night. New York had lost seven of its previous eight games.

The American League West-leading Astros (54-36) are on a three-game losing streak after winning six in a row. They are still an MLB-best 41-22 against teams with records of .500 or better and are favored in this one.

Jameson Taillon (4-4, 5.05) will start for the Yankees against left-hander Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86).

Yankees vs Astros Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at DraftKings
New York Yankees +123 +1.5 (-162) Over 8.5 (-120)
Houston Astros -143 -1.5 (+135) Under 8.5 (+100)

Odds as of July 10th.

Taillon Coming on Strong

Taillon seems to be finding his footing in his first season with the Yankees after spending the first four years of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has won his last three starts with a 3.38 ERA after going eight starts without a victory.

After missing last season while rehabbing from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery, Taillon has just three quality starts in 16 outings this season. However, two of those QS have come in his last three rotation turns.

Taillon had his best start yet Tuesday when he beat the Mariners in Seattle, pitching a season-high seven innings and matching a season best with nine strikeouts. He allowed one run, four hits and one walk.

It was Taillon’s first road win of the season as he is 1-3 with an 8.25 ERA in six starts away from home. He has a 2-2 record in six starts in day games with a 4.56 ERA.

Taillon will be pitching in his hometown of Houston for the first time. He faced the Astros once in his career, in 2016, and lost despite allowing giving up two runs in eight innings at Pittsburgh.

The Yankees has been airtight in recent days with a 0.92 ERA in the last six games. Chad Green has a 0.51 ERA in his last 11 appearances.

All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa is expected to sit out again after missing the first two games of the series following his placement on the COVID-19 injured list.

Astros catcher Martin Maldonado is 3 for 5 against Taillon with a double. However, Houston has scored four runs or less in six of its last seven games.

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Valdez Hits The Skids

Valdez has hit a rough patch lately, going 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three outings after winning five starts in a row.

In his last start on Tuesday against the visiting Oakland Athletics, Valdez did not factor in the decision but gave up a season-high six runs (five earned) and 10 hits in five innings while striking out six and walking two. He had not surrendered more than three runs in any of his seven other starts this season.

Valdez had notched six consecutive quality starts in a row prior to Tuesday. He has a 2-0 record and 3.52 ERA in four starts at Minute Maid Park this season and is 1-1 with a 2.77 in two daytime starts.

Valdez will be facing the Yankees for the second time in his career. He lost to them in 2019 at Yankee Stadium when he was tagged for five runs in 3.1 innings.

All-Star reliever Ryan Presley continues to shine as he has a streak of 15 consecutive games without surrendering an earned run.

Left fielder Miguel Andujar (strained left wrist) was placed on the injured list prior to Saturday’s game.

Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu has reached base in 26 straight games, hitting .315 (34 for 108) with 13 runs, five doubles, four home runs, 21 RBIs, 11 walks and one hit by pitch.

First baseman Luke Voit has been on base in 10 of his 17 plate appearances in the last four games. He has gone 9 for 16 (.563) in that span with two runs, one double and four RBIs.

Yankees in Control

The Yankees have won four of five games against the Astros this season.

On Saturday, Gerrit Cole demanded on the mound that manager Aaron Boone let him get the final out then struck out Yordan Alvarez with a 99-mph fastball on his career-high 129th pitch to cap the Yankees’ win.

Aaron Judge hit a solo homer, his sixth in the last 14 games, and Cole completed a three-hitter for his fifth career complete game and third shutout. Cole (9-4) tied a season low in hits and struck out 12.

The teams did not meet during the pandemic-altered 2020 season. Houston took four of seven from New York in 2019 then beat the Yankees in the American League Championship Series in six games.

A total of five runs have been scored in the first two games of this series. Look for Taillon, Valdez and two hot bullpens to keep offense at a minimum again this time.

The Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

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