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Pirates vs Reds Odds, Lines and Spread – April 7th

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 6, 2021 · 7:46 PM PDT

Mike Moustakas swing
Cincinnati Reds' Mike Moustakas hits an RBI sacrifice fly during the fifth inning of the team's baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals in Cincinnati, Thursday, April 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)
  • The Pirates and Reds meet for the third game of their series on April 7
  • Opening Day starters Chad Kuhl and Luis Castillo are due to take the mound
  • Read below for a betting preview, odds and prediction for Wednesday’s game

The Pirates and Reds play the third game of their series on April 7th. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm ET with Opening Day starters Chad Kuhl and Luis Castillo set to matchup.

Cincinnati is favored in the Pirates vs Reds odds. The Reds have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball so far this season. Unsurprisingly, it’s been a slow start from the Pirates, who have had to place rookie sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes on the IL.

Pirates vs Reds Odds

Team Runline Moneyline at FanDuel Total
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-114) +184 Ov 8.5 (-108)
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-105) -220 Un 8.5 (-112)

Odds as of April 6 .

Pittsburgh is focused on the future. Their roster for 2021 is arguably the weakest in the Majors, and that will be reflected in the betting throughout the campaign. Kuhl being the Opening Day starter and matching up with an All-Star like Castillo a few days later shows where the Pirates are right now.

Cincinnati lost key players over the winter, but they will hope Castillo can lead a solid rotation this season.

Slow Start for Ace

The season couldn’t have started much worse for the 28-year-old Castillo, however. He took a battering from the Cardinals on April 1st, conceding eight earned runs and not registering a strikeout. There was a marked uptick in slider usage in that outing, and a concerning drop in velocity from 2020.

Castillo’s fastball and heavy sinker were up around 97mph last season, but he was almost three miles per hour slower against the Cardinals. This could just be working through some rust after throwing just 9.1 Spring Training innings, though it’s something to keep an eye out for.

Opening Day was the first time Castillo has given up eight earned in a start since August 2019 (also against the Cards). The expectation is that start was an anomaly, simply a bad day on the mound for a player coming off the best year of his career. Earning his first All-Star nod in 2020, Castillo posted a 2.65 FIP.

Pirates Career Stats vs Castillo

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Wilmer Difo 4 2 0 0 0 .500
Adam Frazier 16 3 0 0 3 .188
Erik Gonzalez 8 2 0 0 3 .250
Colin Moran 18 8 1 5 1 .444
Kevin Newman 12 3 0 1 4 .250
Gregory Polanco 8 2 0 1 2 .250
Bryan Reynolds 8 0 0 0 3 .000
Jacob Stallings 2 0 0 0 2 .000

Having been with the Reds throughout his Major League career, Castillo has significant history against some of the Pirates hitters. He dominated them last season, giving up two earned runs and striking out 18 in 13 frames.

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Kuhl Building Up

Still building up arm strength, Kuhl pitched only three innings on Opening Day. The Pirates will have been satisfied with him giving up just one earned run. The three walks in the first two innings were perhaps a concern for Pittsburgh, but Kuhl claimed he started to find some control in the third inning.

Throughout his career, Kuhl has a strong record against the Reds, owning a 3.23 ERA, considerably lower than his career mark of 4.35.

Despite some positive history in this matchup, the Pirates are going to lean heavily on their bullpen once again.

Reds Career Stats vs Kuhl

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Tucker Barnhart 14 2 0 0 6 .143
Nick Castellanos 13 4 1 4 4 .308
Kyle Farmer 3 1 0 0 2 .333
Mike Moustakas 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Nick Senzel 1 0 0 0 0 .000
Eugenio Suarez 14 4 0 0 4 .286
Joey Votto 14 7 1 2 1 .500
Jesse Winker 16 4 2 4 1 .250

Pittsburgh has long relievers in the ‘pen, but having only got five innings from a starter once so far this season, the Pirates must be wary of overworking their relief arms. This will likely be another game where Derek Shelton delves deep into his bullpen.

Back Castillo To Regain Form

Cincinnati will be hoping that was just an off day for Castillo. While the decrease in velocity could be a concern if it continues into Wednesday’s start, recent history suggests Castillo will get back to his best for the final game of this series.

Only four pitchers had a better FIP than Castillo last season. If he can get anywhere near that level, he should be able to shut down this Pirates offense once again.

The Reds have the offense to take advantage of a strong Castillo start, particularly if Kuhl is forced to hand over to the bullpen early on.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-105)

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