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Pittsburgh Pirates’ NL Pennant Odds Improve Dramatically After Claiming 1st Place in the Central

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 5:39 AM PST

Josh Bell
Josh Bell and the Pirates have gotten off to a fast start. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr)
  • The odds of the Pittsburgh Pirates winning the NL Pennant have dropped from +5200 to +1600 since April 1st
  • The 12-7 Pirates lead the NL Central Division
  • Pittsburgh’s .632 winning percentage is the best in the NL

The Pittsburgh Pirates lead the National League Central Division, and that’s no April Fool’s joke. In fact, on April 1st, sportsbooks actually viewed Pittsburgh’s chances of winning the NL Pennant to be a joke.

Pittsburgh’s average NL Pennant odds on April Fools’ Day were +5200 across a number of top sportsbooks. Today, Pittsburgh is listed at +1600 to win the Pennant across those same sportsbooks.

2019 National League Pennant Odds

Team Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +270
Philadelphia Phillies +550
Milwaukee Brewers +700
St. Louis Cardinals +750
Chicago Cubs +850
New York Mets +1000
Washington Nationals +1100
Atlanta Braves +1200
Pittsburgh Pirates +1600
San Diego Padres +1600
Arizona Diamondbacks +2500
Colorado Rockies +3000
Cincinnati Reds +8000
San Francisco Giants +8000
Miami Marlins +40000

*Odds taken on 04/22/19

The Pirates own an NL-best 12-7 record.

A New Approach for the Pirates

Back the the 1970’s, the Pirates dominated than NL with a powerful offense. Pittsburgh was known as the Lumber Company, with a potent batting order from top to bottom, highlighted by the likes of Roberto Clemente, Willie Stargell, and Al Oliver.

These Pirates are winning the arms race, overpowering opponents with their ace pitching. Pittsburgh has allowed three runs or less in 10 successive games. The starting pitching has posted quality starts in nine of the last 10 games. Pittsburgh owns an NL-best 3.45 earned-run average.

The Pirates have won four of the last five series and are 4-2-1 in series play thus far this season.

Injuries Haven’t Hampered Them

There’s been a revolving door on sick bay in Pittsburgh this season. The Bucs recently got catcher Elias Diaz and reliever Kyle Crick back from the injured list.

But just as Gregory Polanco is poised to return to action this week, fellow outfielder Starling Marte and shortstop Eric Gonzalez collided on a play in Friday’s win over San Francisco and both are now on the IL.

Outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall (broken hand) is on a rehab assignment at AAA Huntington.

But they’ve got great mileage out journeyman outfielder Melky Cabrera. Signed as a minor-league free agent, he made the club out of spring training and is slashing it at .316/.339/.421 so far this season. Shortstop Cole Tucker hit a game-winning homer on the weekend in his MLB debut. Brian Reynolds, another rookie, when 4-for-6 over the weekend.

It Can’t Last

As Cinderella a start as it’s been for the Bucs, you sense that midnight is just around the corner. Pittsburgh is hitting .229 as a team with a .303 on-base percentage. The pitching can’t prop up that anemic attack forever.

The NL Central might just be baseball’s toughest division. The Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals are all deeper than the Pirates and that fact will materialize over the course of a 162-game season.

The Dodgers and Phillies are the best bets in the NL. If you want to play a Central sleeper, we suggest going with the Cardinals at +750.

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