Upcoming Match-ups

Rays Takeover as AL Pennant Favorites; Yankees a Close Second

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 10, 2020 · 8:04 PM PDT

Rays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier rounding the bases
Kevin Kiermaier and the Rays seen their World Series odds surge. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • A +933 longshot in July, the Rays’ pennant are now the shortest in the American League 
  • The Chicago White Sox have also seen their odds slashed dramatically as the team has moved atop the AL Central
  • Read on for full AL pennant odds, analysis and a best bet on who will represent the AL in the World Series

While almost everything about 2020 has been turned upside down, the Tampa Bay Rays are actually bucking the trend and showing that their 96-win season of a year ago was no fluke.

Kevin Cash’s team has built on its 2019 campaign in this pandemic-shortened season. Before Thursday night’s game against Boston, not only did the Rays have the best record in the American League (28-15), but also the best AL pennant odds.

While the New York Yankees were the favorites (+168) to win the pennant heading into the season, the Bronx Bombers have struggled, going 3-7 in their last 10 and falling to third place in the AL East, behind the Rays and Toronto Blue Jays.

The Rays are now at an average of +329 to win their first pennant since 2008, the first and only time they have been to the World Series. The oddsmakers at DraftKings are the most optimistic about Tampa’s chances, setting the Rays at +290.

AL Pennant Odds

Team Odds at DraftKings
Tampa Bay Rays +290
New York Yankees +325
Oakland Athletics +500
Chicago White Sox +650
Minnesota Twins +700
Cleveland Indians +750
Houston Astros +800
Toronto Blue Jays +1100
Baltimore Orioles +10000
Detroit Tigers +10000
Los Angeles Angels +20000
Seattle Mariners +20000
Texas Rangers +20000
Kansas City Royals +25000
Boston Red Sox +50000

Odds taken September 10.

Are Rays for Real?

For much of August, the Rays looked almost unbeatable, going .750 with a 21-7 record over the entire month, including a pair of six-game winning streaks. The team is tied for eighth in  runs scored in Major League Baseball this season, while its team ERA of 3.85 ranks seventh overall. The Rays are deep throughout their lineup, which has allowed them to compete with some of the superstar-laden lineups in the AL, most notably the Yankees.

However, Tampa may be showing some chinks in its armor, losing three of its last four and four of its last seven, posting a negative run differential (-8) since the calendar turned to September.

The Rays have shown an extraordinary ability to win tight games, going 10-3 in one-run contests, an indicator that the team could very easily regress and wind up in a fight with the Yankees and Blue Jays for the AL East crown.

Can the Sox Contend?

No, not the Boston Red Sox, the 2018 World Series champs, but the Chicago White Sox, who have won just two pennants in the last 100 years. The inverse of the Yankees, the ChiSox are 7-3 over their last 10 game, are a top-five team in terms of runs scored and team ERA, and are +650 to win the pennant.

Dallas Keuchel, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease are all in the top-23 pitchers in MLB in terms of ERA and wins, in theory making the White Sox a hard out for any team come playoff time.

The White Sox are currently atop the hyper-tight AL Central, and are about to have their mettle tested, with 17 games in 17 days to round out the regular season. However, their run differential of +59 is the best in the AL, showing that they have the ability in both facets of the game.

Cleveland Has a Shot

The Cleveland Indians have the best pitching staff in baseball based on ERA. Their 2.89 team ERA is slightly ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers at 2.92 and well ahead of third-placed Oakland at 3..48. Pitching reigns supreme in the postseason, particularly in some of the shortened series that teams will face this year, such as the best-of-three first round.

Going with a one-two of Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco would be a scary proposition for any opponent in that situation.

The question is whether the Indians can score enough runs to complement their arms. Only Kansas City and Texas have scored fewer than the paltry 178 runs that Cleveland has put up so far, one of the chief reasons it is trailing the White Sox in the AL Central. But if the bats get hot, look out.

What About the A’s?

In much the same mould as Cleveland, the A’s have an above-average pitching staff, but their offense is some ways behind the elite AL teams (195 runs). A mediocre offense hasn’t stopped Oakland from opening up a 6.5-game lead over the Houston Astros, last year’s AL pennant winner.

The Bottom Line

While the Rays may be the betting favorites, no AL team offers better value than the White Sox. Despite a 12-year playoff drought, Chicago offers a tantalizing opportunity at +650, with an elite pitching staff combined with the best run-scoring team in the American League.

Author Image