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Rays vs Guardians Odds, Lines & Picks (Sep. 28)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 27, 2022 · 7:56 PM PDT

Jose Ramirez slides safely into third
Sep 27, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes (17) reaches for the ball as Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) slides to third base on his RBI triple in the third inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Rays vs Guardians odds favor Cleveland as -120 moneyline favorites on Wednesday (Sept. 28) at 6:10 pm ET
  • Tampa Bay will give the ball to Tyler Glasnow (2021 stats: 5-2, 2.66 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Triston McKenzie (11-11, 3.04 ERA)
  • Read below for the Rays vs Guardians odds and betting prediction

The Rays (85-69, 34-39 away) and Guardians (86-68, 40-33 home) continue their three-game series on Wednesday in what could be a potential Wild Card Round preview.

Tampa Bay took the series opener 6-5 in extra innings, and oddsmakers are expecting another close contest in Game 2.

Rays vs Guardians Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Tampa Bay Rays +100 -1.5 (+180) Ov 6.5 (-120)
Cleveland Guardians -120 +1.5 (-210) Un 6.5 (+100)

Odds as of September 27 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.

The Guardians opened up as -120 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features an extra low total of 6.5. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm ET at Progressive Field, in Cleveland, Ohio with clear skies and 62 degree game-time temperatures on deck.

 

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Tampa Bay vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers

Cleveland, a top-11 World Series odds contender, will give the ball to third-year starter Triston McKenzie. The 25-year-old has already set career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts this season, and is on pace for the lowest ERA of his career.

McKenzie has been a model of consistency in the second half, yielding three or fewer runs in nine straight starts. The Guardians have won each of his past four outings, and he’s fresh off 8 innings of two run ball against the White Sox.

The right-hander has made just one career start against the Rays, holding them to two runs over 6 innings last year. Current Tampa Bay hitters are batting just .190 against him, with a tiny .286 slugging percentage.

Glasnow (2021) vs McKenzie Stats

Tyler Glasnow
VS
Triston McKenzie
5-2 Record 11-11
2.66 ERA 3.04
0.93 WHIP 0.96
.176 OBA .227
4.6 SO/W Ratio 5.4

The Rays will counter with Tyler Glasnow, who’ll make his first start in 60 weeks following Tommy John Surgery. The hard throwing righty made a handful of starts in Triple-A during his rehab, and the reports were glowing.

Glasnow was hitting 99 mph on the radar gun, and struck out 14 of the 26 batters he faced. He only allowed one hit and four walks during his outings, and says he feels great.

He’ll reportedly be limited to roughly two or three innings and 45 pitches, which means Cleveland will see plenty of the Rays relievers. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been suspect over the past two weeks, ranking bottom-eight in WAR and surrendering home runs at the league’s fifth highest rate.

Rays vs Guardians Betting Trends

The Rays bullpen blew an 8th inning lead on Tuesday, and used the majority of the relievers at their disposal after Corey Kluber lasted only 4 innings in his first trip back to Cleveland.

The Guardians lineup is enjoying one of its best months of the season, averaging just shy of six runs per contest, while winning 16 of their past 19 contests. They racked up 14 hits in the series opener, nearly double the amount that Tampa Bay produced, but simply failed to capitalize with runners in scoring position.

Tampa Bay meanwhile, did get some timely hitting from Harold Ramirez, who doubled home a run off Shane Bieber to kick start a four-run 4th inning, and then had the game winning hit in the 11th.

The Rays are not certainly not a potent lineup, but they’re not a bottom-feeder either. They’re capable of big performances as we’ve witnessed over the past week. They’ve scored seven or more runs three times in their last five outings, and have hit double-digits three times in the last two weeks.

TB vs CLE Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
9/27/22 Rays Guardians TB, 6-5
7/31/22 Guardians Rays CLE, 5-3
7/30/22 Guardians Rays TB, 6-4
7/29/22 Guardians Rays CLE, 4-1
7/25/21 Rays Guardians CLE, 3-2
7/24/21 Rays Guardians TB, 8-2
7/23/21 Rays Guardians TB, 10-5
7/22/21 Rays Guardians TB, 5-4
7/7/21 Guardians Rays TB, 4-0
7/7/21 Guardians Rays TB, 8-1

Rays vs Guardians Pick

6.5 runs is simply too low a total for this matchup. Yes, these two teams are usually favorites of under bettors, but the Guardians are swinging the bats too well right now to ignore. The fact that they’re going to face a tired bullpen for upwards of 6 innings of Wednesday only enhances their ceiling.

Tampa Bay meanwhile, is in a tough spot against McKenzie but they won’t need to do much to help push this game over the number. Each of the past three meetings between these two clubs have produced at least eight runs, and I’m betting this matchup will end up in that range as well.

Picks: Over 6.5 (-120), Guardians Over 3.5 runs (+110)

 

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