Rays Trade for Nelson Cruz; World Series Odds Still +1400

• The Tampa Bay Rays made a deal with the Minnesota Twins to acquire Nelson Cruz on Thursday
• Tampa’s World Series odds have stuck at +1400
• Read below for more on the Cruz trade and how it impacts the Rays going forward

The Rays landed Nelson Cruz from the Twins on Thursday. Minnesota acquired two of Tampa Bay’s top prospects in the deal. Pitchers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman sat 10th and 17th in the Rays’ farm system per MLB Pipeline, while the Rays also received Double-A pitcher Calvin Faucher.

There has been no movement in the Rays’ World Series odds despite pulling off an early blockbuster trade.

They remain +1400 at DraftKings to go one better than they did in 2020. One game back in the AL East as of July 23rd, they are second favorites for the division and sit at +625 to win the pennant.

2021 World Series Odds

Odds as of July 23rd at DraftKings

Cruz Enhances Lineup

Nelson Cruz is one of MLB’s best hitters. Playing DH and in a small market, he has been overlooked in recent years. Since 2018, however, Cruz is sixth in wRC+, and second in homers. Over that same span, he’s been particularly destructive against LHPs, an area where the Rays have struggled this season. He owns a 1.087 OPS against LHP since 2018, and no player has hit more long balls against southpaws.

Nelson Cruz's final #MNTwins numbers:

258 games
.304 AVG
.386 OBP
.598 SLG
76 HR
191 RBIs

Best free-agent signing in team history and one of the greatest hitters ever to put on a Twins uniform.

Rays make sense. They were in the mix for Cruz before the Twins signed him in 2019.

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) July 22, 2021

There are minimal signs of decline, too. The former Ranger has his best hard hit rate since 2016. He ranks in the top 7% in xwOBA. He might be 41 years old, but Cruz remains one of the most destructive hitters in the Majors by both his outcome statistics and the underlying numbers.

How Rays Offense Changes

The Rays rank 26th in slugging against lefties in 2021. They are below average across the board against LHPs. Their offense could do with a boost in general, but there’s no question Cruz is a perfect fit to enhance their production against left-handers.

For a team sitting around the middle of the pack in power, a trade for Cruz always made sense, and it should change how bettors look at them in the second half.

#Rays strike out more than any team and had weakness vs. LHP. But still were averaging the 7th most runs per game in MLB. Now they get a mid-order slugger who limits Ks (lowest rate of career) and crushes LHP. #Twins

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 22, 2021

This is a team which ranks seventh in walk rate. That should improve further with Cruz’s arrival (the Rays are at 9.8% in 2021 after being 10.7% in 2020). They are just 16th in hard hit rate. Again, this should improve markedly with Cruz in the middle of the order.

Rays on the Charge

Only a game back in the division, there’s value in backing the Rays in the AL East odds. They have 13 games to play against the Red Sox. It’s a solid enough schedule the rest of the way with a total of six games against the White Sox and Astros. The toughest inter-league games have already been played, with just three against Miami and a couple against the Phillies to come.

When it comes to betting on the Rays as a postseason team, though, the Cruz trade alone is not enough to make their AL Pennant odds appealing. Tyler Glasnow’s injury is the key.

That is #Rays Glasnow throwing a baseball … pic.twitter.com/jMMdEO4nqj

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 20, 2021

With Charlie Morton and Blake Snell departing in the offseason, Tampa Bay is very dependent on Glasnow. There have been reports that he could yet return in 2021, but it’s very unclear at this point how his injury will be treated.

The +625 price to return to the Fall Classic doesn’t represent great value even if they win their division. If the Rays front office dip into their prospect depth to add pitching, it might change their postseason outlook drastically.