Reds vs Cubs Odds & Picks (Sep. 30)
- Chicago is a -155 home favorite over Cincinnati in the Cubs vs Reds odds on Friday, September 30
- The Cubs and Reds are closing out the season with six games against each other
- Cincinnati is holding a 7-6 straight up edge in the season series
The only baseball teams that the Chicago Cubs (70-86, 34-44 home) and Cincinnati Reds (60-96, 29-49 away) will oppose for the remainder of their MLB season are each other.
They begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Friday. Then they switch locales to Cincinnati for the final three games of the National League regular season on Monday.
There’s been little to choose between these two NL Central rivals in 2022. Cincinnati is holding a 7-6 straight up advantage in the season series. On the runline, it’s the Cubs showing an 8-5 edge.
Chicago is also being given favorite’s odds for the opener of this weekend set.
Reds vs Cubs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | +130 | OFF | OFF |
| Chicago Cubs | -155 | OFF | OFF |
Odds as of September 29 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
The Cubs are -155 home favorites. Chicago is 3-3 against the runline as a home favorite over Cincinnati this season.
At moneyline odds of -155, the Cubs have an implied probability of victory of 60.78% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on the Chicago Cubs would create a payout of $16.50.
The MLB lineups will be set for the first pitch at Wrigley Field for 2:20 pm ET on Friday, September 30. The weather forecast is calling for clear skies with 7 mph wind and a temperature of 64 degrees.
MLB betting trends are showing that 61% of the public betting splits on the moneyline and runline are with the Cubs. There’s also 61 % of public money going with the over in the total.
Cincinnati vs Chicago Probable Pitchers
Reds rookie right-hander Graham Ashcraft has lost his last two decisions Since launching his MLB career 3-0, he’s gone 2-4. He’s posted one win since the end of June.
Ashcraft is among the bottom 5% of MLB hurlers in exit velocity (115.9) and the bottom 7% in strikeout percentage (15.6). He has allowed 10 earned runs over his last 16 innings on the mound. That’s a 5.63 ERA.
Graham Ashcraft, Stupid 101mph Cutter. 🥴 pic.twitter.com/A4Hdc5FdEb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2022
The Cubs have beaten up Ashcraft badly. He’s 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in two starts against Chicago. Ashcraft has allowed 13 hits and 10 earned runs over 8.2 innings of work. He’s issued five walks and served up two home runs.
Ashcraft vs Sampson Stats
| 5-4 | Record | 3-5 |
| 4.18 | ERA | 3.23 |
| 4.01 | xERA | 4.60 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 2.87 | SO/W Ratio | 2.67 |
Cubs right-hander Adrian Sampson will be making his 20th appearance of the season and 18th start. He’s won his last two decisions. Sampson is 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in September. He’s holding the opposition to a .228 batting average for the month.
Adrian Sampson has 4 straight quality starts for the first time in his career!
He has a 1.55 ERA in September. pic.twitter.com/pbuZ9Hguk0
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 25, 2022
Within MLB pitchers, Sampson rates in the bottom 7% in exit velocity (115.2) and the lower 9% in xBA (.273). He’s given up just three earned runs over his past 24 innings of work (1.13 ERA). Sampson has posted four successive quality starts. That’s a first for him as an MLB pitcher.
Sampson is 0-0 in two starts against the Reds this season with a 2.70 ERA. Over his career, in four starts against Cincinnati the veteran righty is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Cubs Batters | Batting Average vs Ashcraft | Reds Batters | Batting Average vs Sampson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Bote | .500 | Aristides Aquino | .000 |
| Ian Happ | .500 | Jose Barrero | .200 |
| PJ Higgins | 1.000 | Kyle Farmer | .375 |
| Christopher Morel | 1.000 | Jake Fraley | .800 |
| Franmil Reyes | .667 | Jonathan India | .375 |
| Nelson Velazquez | .333 | Austin Romine | .500 |
| Patrick Wisdom | .400 | Donovan Solano | 1.000 |
Franmil Reyes of the Cubs is 2-for-3 (.667) with a homer and two RBI when facing Ashcraft. Patrick Wisdom is 2-for-5 (.400) with a grand slam home run and five RBI. Christopher Morel is 2-for-2 (1.000) with an RBI. PJ Higgins is also 2-for-2 (1.000). Ian Happ is 2-for-4 (.500) with an RBI.
Patrick Wisdom hits a GRAND SLAM off Graham Ashcraft‼️#MLB #ItsDifferentHerepic.twitter.com/bq5VX1SAy3
— SportsGridTV (@SportsGridTV) July 1, 2022
Against Sampson, Cincinnati’s Jake Fraley is 4-for-5 (.800). Kyle Farmer and Jonathan India are both 3-for-8 (.375) with a homer. Farmer has driven in three runs, while India has one RBI. Donovan Solano is 1-for-1 (1.000).
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
The season is ending much like it began for the Reds. Cincinnati broke from the gate 3-22 in April. The Reds arrive in Chicago after being swept in a three game series at Pittsburgh. They are 1-6 SU over the past seven games, 3-10 since September 16 and 4-16 since September 10.
The Cubs (My favorite baseball team) are 8-1 in their last nine games giving them 70 wins. They have six games left, all against the Reds.
Their season win total was 74; I took the under. This is going to be a brutal beat.
— cody wells (@codywells1981) September 29, 2022
At the other end of the spectrum, the Cubs have won four in a row and eight of their last nine games. But they’re just 10-10 SU in the last 20 games at Wrigley.
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-155)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
