Royals vs Guardians Picks & Odds (Oct. 3)
- The Royals vs Guardians odds favor Cleveland as -180 moneyline favorites on Monday (Oct. 3) at 6:10 pm ET
- KC will give the ball to Zack Greinke (4-9, 3.78 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.99 ERA)
- Read below for the Royals vs Guardians odds and betting prediction
The Cleveland Guardians (90-69, 44-34 home) began the season with a four-game series versus the Kansas City Royals (64-95, 25-53 away). They’re now in the middle of finishing their campaign with a rare six-game set versus KC.
The AL Central champs have taken two of three from the Royals so far, and will look to improve upon their 90-win total on Monday in Game 4.
Royals vs Guardians Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | +155 | +1.5 (-135) | O 7 (-105) |
| Cleveland Guardians | -180 | -1.5 (+115) | U 7 (-115) |
Odds as of October 2 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
The Guardians are -180 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 7. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, with sunshine and 68 degree temperatures on deck.
Kansas City vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers
Cleveland will give the ball to Triston McKenzie, who projects as their number two starter in the Wild Card Round. He’s 2-0 in September, with a 2.14 ERA in five starts. Last time out, he held Tampa Bay to one run over 6 innings, scattering three hits while striking out six.
This dude Triston McKenzie has become a problem… @CleGuardians #ForTheLand
Allow me to explain… pic.twitter.com/ZIbV9M6FZh
— Xavier Scruggs (@Xavier_Scruggs) September 28, 2022
McKenzie has faced the Royals three times this season, holding them in check each time. He’s allowed just eight hits and four earned runs over 14.2 innings, with 10 strikeouts. Current KC hitters are batting .202 against him over 94 at-bats, with a tiny .286 OBP.
Greinke vs McKenzie Stats
| 4-9 | Record | 11-11 |
| 3.78 | ERA | 2.99 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| .286 | OBA | .200 |
| 2.8 | SO/W Ratio | 4.2 |
The Royals will counter with the veteran Zack Greinke. The 38-year-old is fresh off one of his best starts of the season, throwing 7 shutout innings against Detroit, while allowing only four hits.
Like McKenzie, he’s been very sharp this month, posting a 2.01 ERA in four starts. One of those outings was against the Guardians, where he held Cleveland to one run and six hits over 6 innings.
Greinke is 1-0 in three starts versus the Guardians this season, with a sparkling 1.08 ERA. He’s held Cleveland batters to a lifetime .244 average, with a .261 OBP and .302 slugging percentage.
Royals vs Guardians Betting Trends
Greinke should have his hands full given the form of Cleveland coming in. They’re an MLB best 22-5 since September 5th, winning 11 of their last 13 contests overall. Despite the success, they’re still available at +4000 in the World Series odds, the longest price of any team currently pencilled into the playoffs.
Smoked it! 💨
Josh Naylor socks the @CleGuardians' second three-run homer of the inning!#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/KhY1vA97xM
— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) October 2, 2022
Cleveland pounded 10 hits and scored seven times in Sunday’s victory over KC, marking the eighth time in their 16 meetings they’ve scored at least six runs. The Guardians have hammered Royals pitchers not named Greinke this season, slashing .295/.360/.436.
Zack Greinke stories are the best pic.twitter.com/fXtelxY3vK
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 26, 2022
KC enters play losers of five of their last six. They’ve averaging just 2.6 runs per outing during that stretch, and have not fared particularly well against Cleveland pitching in 2022. The Royals are batting .222 versus Cleveland, averaging only 3.3 runs per game.
KC vs CLE Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2/22 | Royals | Guardians | CLE, 7-5 |
| 10/1/22 | Royals | Guardians | KC, 7-1 |
| 9/30/22 | Royals | Guardians | CLE, 6-3 |
| 9/7/22 | Guardians | Royals | KC, 2-1 |
| 9/6/22 | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 4-1 |
| 9/5/22 | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 6-5 |
| 7/10/22 | Guardians | Royals | KC, 5-1 |
| 7/9/22 | Guardians | Royals | CLE, 13-5 |
| 7/8/22 | Guardians | Royals | KC, 4-3 |
| 6/1/22 | Royals | Guardians | CLE, 4-0 |
Royals vs Guardians Pick
These two teams have played three high scoring games so far this series, but we should temper offensive expectations for Monday. Both Greinke and McKenzie are in fine form, while the Royals bats are slumping badly.
All three of Greinke’s starts versus Cleveland this season have fallen well under the total, as had five of the past seven matchups between these two teams prior to this weekend.
Early betting action however, is pounding the over to the tune of 76% of the money wagered on the total. That could signal that the over/under may be on the rise, and if you’re like me and looking to play the under, wait until Monday afternoon to see if you can get a better number.
Pick: Under 7 (-115)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
