How Much Will Slumping Harper Get in Free Agency?

• Bryce Harper is mired in a brutal slump, hitting just .212 on the year and .135 in June.
• This is the second time in three years that Harper has been a shadow of his former MVP self.
• Where will the impending free agent sign in 2019, and does he have any chance of landing a $400 million contract?

With a pitching staff that’s second-to-none in the National League, the Washington Nationals were projected to cruise to another NL East title in 2018. Yet, in late June, they sit 3.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves.

The rotation has been as-advertised and the Nats have allowed the second-fewest runs in the NL (251), trailing only the Chicago Cubs (246). But the offense, which averaged over five runs per game in 2017, is down almost a full run this year (4.24 RPG).

Extended absences from Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton are partly to blame. But arguably the biggest contributing factor is the vanishing act performed by Bryce Harper. The 2015 NL MVP is having one of the worst seasons of his career, and it’s coming at the exact wrong time as his contract is due to expire at the end of the year.

Bryce Harper: Career Stats By Year

While his high walk-rate has kept his on-base percentage up (.351), and his power numbers for the year as a whole are more than respectable (19 HR), he has hardly been able to buy a hit, especially of late.

In June, Harper has a triple-slash line of .135/.224/.192. Those aren’t out of order. His slugging percentage is lower than his OBP. He only has one extra-base hit all month.

Aside from his patience at the plate, there’s not much for Harper to hang his hat on. He’s been equally bad against righties (.214 BA) and lefties (.211), at home (.218) and away (.206), and during day games (.190) and night games (.229).

Harper was once projected to fetch upwards of $400 million on the open market. If he doesn’t turn things around, will purse strings tighten? Or will a team starved for star-power chalk this up as a down year and open up the checkbook for MLB’s most recognizable face?

Let’s set some odds.

Over/Under: Bryce Harper’s Next Contract

Looking at the stats table above, a concerning trend emerges. Harper is sandwiching great seasons between substandard seasons. In 2013, he busted out and showed the tools that made him the first-overall pick in 2012. But then he regressed a little in 2014.

In 2015, he lit the world on fire and won NL MVP. But then his numbers dropped precipitously across the board in 2016.

Fears were allayed with a bounceback season in 2017, only to be reignited by 2018’s downturn.

No statistic encapsulates this trend better than his yo-yoing WAR, and at his current pace, he’ll be lucky to crack 1.0 this year.

Those are not the credentials of a $400 million man.

At his current pace, [Harper will] be lucky to crack [a 1.0 WAR] this year.

But looking at the odds, this isn’t the end of the world for Harper. He is likely to regroup to some extent over the remainder of the season, and he is still going to fetch a massive haul as a free-agent, almost regardless of his rest-of-season performance. The over/unders are, realistically, deflated by the possibility that he signs a relatively short extension with the Nats. (More on that later.)

Agent Scott Boras will have a difficult time convincing any GM that he’s worth more than Mike Trout (who’s currently earning $34 million per season), but Harper is only 25 years old and the inconsistency that’s plagued him so far may ebb as he gains more experience.

At least, that’s the story some front office is going to tell itself.

Which front office will that be?

Which Team Will Bryce Harper Play for in 2019?

At the start of the season, it was a foregone conclusion that Harper would not sign an extension with the Nats before testing the free-agent waters. If his current slump continues, the safety of an extension will become more and more alluring to Harper, though still not overly likely.

When you add the possibility of an extension to the possibility of the Nats signing him as a free agent, they emerge as a pretty heavy favorite.

Unlike other teams, Washington knows exactly what it’s getting with Harper, and they seem to like it. Owner Mark Lerner said Harper “feels like a member of the family,” notes Steve Adams. Whereas other teams may be a little put off by statements like this:

One NL exec isn’t a fan of Bryce Harper, per @RobertMurrayFRS: “He’s simply overrated. …He’s a losing player. …I would not sign him.” https://t.co/66p8Ahyz7l pic.twitter.com/qJ7e9XkPaE

— Bleacher Report MLB (@BR_MLB) June 12, 2018

The Cubs are the second-favorite for a couple reasons. Their young core is getting older every day and the big-spending club is in win-now mode, having emptied out most of the farm system in recent years.

They are also an attractive landing spot for Harper given that childhood friend Kris Bryant is already on the roster.

Just two Vegas boys living out our dream with the ones we love! This is what it’s all about..What a time to be alive??#MLB #702 #Back2BackOneDay

A post shared by Bryce Harper (@bharper3407) on Jun 27, 2017 at 8:25pm PDT

Periodically throughout the year, sportsbooks will offer props on MLB free agency, particularly in the offseason. But they are usually only available for a short period of time, so check back regularly to ensure you don’t miss out.