Tanaka, Yankees Are -127 Home Favorites vs Greinke, Astros in ALCS Game 4 – Picks & Odds
- Following Wednesday’s rainout, sportsbooks list Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees as -127 favorites to take Game 4 of the ALCS
- Tanaka has won his last four postseason starts
- Astros starter Zack Greinke has lost his last four playoff decisions
The rain that wiped out Game 4 of the ALCS on Wednesday means that the New York Yankees are now able to hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka. That’s the good news. But the reality is that this weather-created extra day of rest could prove to be a win/lose scenario for the Yankees.
Yes, they get to throw Game 1-winner Tanaka in Game 4 as they seek to pull even in the best-of-seven ALCS. However, it also means that the Astros can counter with 18-game-winner Zack Greinke in Game 4 and 21-game-winner Justin Verlander in Game 5.
In the short term, sportsbooks believe that it is advantage Yankees. They list the Bronx Bombers as the -127 chalk to win Game 4 at home in the Yankees vs Astros Game 4 odds.
Astros vs Yankees Game 4 ALCS Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +117 | +1.5 (-180) | Over 8.0 (-111) |
| New York Yankees | -127 | -1.5 (-160) | Under 8.0 (-109) |
*Odds taken 10/16/19.
The Yankees, who lost Game 3 on at home, haven’t dropped successive games at Yankee Stadium since April 2nd-3rd.
Tanaka Is Yankees’ ALCS Ace
Apologies to Reggie Jackson, but Tanaka is emerging as a modern-day Mr. October for the Yankees.
In the opener of the ALCS, the New York right-hander was virtually flawless. He pitched six shutout innings in the 7-0 win. Tanaka faced the minimum 18 batters, allowing one hit and one walk.
Masahiro Tanaka's thoughts on facing the #Astros lineup pic.twitter.com/NYdFL6UzHr
— Max Fairplay ? (@realMaxFairplay) October 16, 2019
He’s given the Yankees at least five innings in all seven of his career postseason starts. Another performance like that could prove vital. Facing the potential of four games in four days, Yankees manager Aaron Boone can’t afford to tax his bullpen too much.
Tanaka has never allowed more than two rus in a playoff start. Since his start in Game 5 of the 2017 ALCS against the Astros, Tanaka is 4-0 with an ERA of 0.78 (two earned runs in 23 innings pitched). He’s struck out 23 hitters and issued just four walks.
Greinke’s Playoff Failures
The quiet Greinke, who battles depression and social anxiety, is a man of few words and even fewer postseason success stories.
On the surface, sending former Cy Young Award-winner Greinke to the hill for Game 4 instead of rookie Jose Urquidy should prove a tremendous advantage for Houston.
The #Astros got Greinke to put them over the top in 2019. He hasn't come close to that through two playoff starts.
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) October 13, 2019
In reality, Greinke’s playoff struggles might not make it so.
He’s 0-2 in this postseason, with an 8.38 ERA. Greinke absorbed the loss in Game 1 of the ALCS, surrendering home runs to Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton. In 9.2 innings of work in the playoffs, Greinke has been touched for five homers.
“Trade for Greinke they said. You’ll be unstoppable they said.” pic.twitter.com/wH9AjOfxOh
— Starting 9 (@Starting9) October 13, 2019
It’s a continuation of what’s been a long-term downturn for Greinke in October action. Going back to Game 5 of the 2015 NLDS when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Greinke has made five postseason starts. Overall, he’s 0-4 with a 6.84 ERA. He’s surrendered eight home runs in 25 innings over that span.
In his playoff career, he’s 3-6 with a 4.58 ERA.
Yankees Hold The Edge
Based on the way each pitcher is trending, the Yankees look like the best bet in Game 4. Tanaka is lights out. On top of that, you have to go back to the first week of the MLB season to find New York losing consecutive games at Yankee Stadium.
In short term, rainout is helpful to the Yanks because they can start Tanaka on regular rest. Not that Greinke is a tomato can, by the way. But Yanks are staring at 4 games in 4 days if series goes 7. For a team that’s so reliant on bullpen, that will be challenging.
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) October 16, 2019
New York was 59-25 at Yankee Stadium this season, the third-best home record in the majors. They’re also 21-12 this season when Tanaka starts.
Pick: New York Yankees (-127)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
