Tanaka, Yankees Open as +143 Underdogs vs Greinke, Astros in ALCS Game 1 – Picks & Odds

• Sportsbooks list the Houston Astros as -153 favorites to win Game 1 of the 2019 ALCS
• Astros starting pitcher Zack Greinke is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA in the postseason
• Read our Game 1 ALCS preview and prediction below

Perhaps the best thing the New York Yankees have going for them in the ALCS against the Houston Astros is that they won’t see Houston’s Cy Young Award-contending dynamic duo of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander until Game 3 of the series.

That means it’s unlikely either will pitch more than twice in the series.

By extending the Astros to the full five games in their ALDS, the Tampa Bay Rays may have done their AL East-rival Yankees a big favor.

Houston will send 18-game winner and former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke to the mound to open this best-of-seven set. The Astros are the -153 chalk to launch the series with a home win.

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Game 1 ALCS Odds

Odds taken 10/11/19.

The Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka. He’s a solid 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in his postseason career.

Greinke’s Playoff Woes

The Rays pounded Greinke for five hits, including three home runs, and six earned runs in 3.2 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS. He took the loss and comes into this game with a postseason ERA of 14.73.

Greinke has lost his last three postseason decisions. He didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in two of his last three playoff starts. He’s 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA in the postseason in his career and Greinke hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2015 NLDS.

The Astros acquired Greinke, 35, with the Yankees in mind. New York relies on a powerful right-handed hitting batting order.

In his career, he’s held right-handed batters to slashes of .235/.279/.372, digits that are significantly lower than his work against lefties (.255/.305/.403). But facing a Yankees lineup that clouted 306 homers this year, second in the majors, it’s perhaps a bit alarming for the Astros to know that righties (147) have homered more frequently off Greinke than lefties (145).

Zack Greinke is the 1st pitcher in Astros history to allow 3+ HR in a postseason game.

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 7, 2019

Greinke went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts for the Astros after he was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He faced the Yanks on two occasions this season with the Dbacks. He beat them 3-1 on April 30th and didn’t figure in the decision in a 7-5 loss on July 31st.

Greinke posted a 2.13 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 12.2 innings against the Yankees.

Tanaka a Playoff Warrior

Tanaka is money in the playoffs. He’s 4-2 in the postseason with a 1.54 ERA. He’ll be facing the Astros for the fourth time in a playoff game.

Tanaka tangled with Houston in Game 1 of the 2017 ALCS and took a 2-1 loss against Dallas Keuchel. He worked seven shutout innings of a 5-0 win in Game 5 that year.

He also lost 3-0 to the Astros in the 2015 AL Wild Card game. So the Astros have handed Tanaka both of his postseason defeats.

Yankees Can’t let this One Get Away

Can Game 1 of a series be a must-win? With Verlander and Cole lined up for Games 2-3, the Yankees can’t afford to drop the opener of this set. If they do, a 3-0 series deficit could be staring them in the face very quickly.

Slow and steady wins the race.

On pitches slower than 70 MPH, Zack Greinke held opponents to a .078 BAA and a .130 SLG. pic.twitter.com/uDGfDM0es3

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 7, 2019

A concern for New York – Tanaka was a disappointing 3-6 with a 6.05 ERA and .287 opponent average on the road this season. Meanwhile, Greinke is 4-0 at Minute Maid Park since joining the Astros.

Pick: New York Yankees (+143)