Upcoming Match-ups

Tigers (Boyd) vs Twins (Dobnak) Picks and Odds – Sep. 4

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 4, 2020 · 8:06 AM PDT

Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera
Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is batting just .143 against Twins starter Randy Dobnak. Photo by Keith Allison (Wiki Commons).
  • The Tigers will play the Twins in Game 1 of a doubleheader at 2:10 pm ET on Friday, Sept. 4th
  • Detroit has won all three matchups this year, but Minnesota went 14-5 against the Tigers in 2019
  • Read on for the odds, analysis and a best bet for this seven-inning game

Friday’s doubleheader featuring the Minnesota Twins hosting the Detroit Tigers will have firm postseason implications. The Twins, who came into this shortened season harboring World Series dreams, are very much in playoff position, currently occupying the second wild-card spot. But the Tigers, who many predicted would be in contention for last place in the American League, are just three games back of them and two behind the second wild-card spot.

For Friday’s opener though, it’s very much Minnesota which is favored in the Tigers vs Twins odds, with 5-2 Randy Dobnak of the Twins going up against 1-4 Matthew Boyd of the Tigers.

Tigers vs Twins Odds

Team Runline Moneyline Total Runs at DraftKings
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-148) +165 O 7 (-108)
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+125) -195 U 7 (-113)

Odds taken Sept. 4

Dobnak’s Setback

The 25-year-old sophomore right-hander had enjoyed a very fruitful start to his MLB career, going 7-2 in his first 11 starts and not once surrendering more than two earned runs in a game. That run of success came to a shuddering end last Saturday in his third career encounter with the Tigers though, in what was also Game 1 of a doubleheader.

Detroit tagged him for 12 hits and six runs in the 4.2 innings he pitched before he was pulled from an eventual 8-2 loss in Motown.

How he responds to that setback will be key to the Twins’ chances of success today.

Tigers Career Stats vs Dobnak

Player AB HR RBI AVG.
Miguel Cabrera 7 0 0 .143
Jeimer Candelario 4 0 1 .500
Willi Castro 5 0 0 .200
Niko Goodrum 2 0 0 1.000
Grayson Greiner 2 0 0 .000
Victor Reyes 6 0 0 .500
Austin Romine 2 0 1 .500
Jonathan Schoop 3 0 1 .333
Christin Stewart 3 0 2 .333

Can Boyd Double Up Against Twins?

Already suffering through one of the worst years of his short career, with a Tigers career-worst 7.27 ERA, Matthew Boyd finally broke through for his first win of the season last Saturday. The opponent? None other than the Minnesota Twins, the same team he will face again today in the exact same pitching matchup he faced in Game 1 of last Saturday’s doubleheader.

The one caveat? That game was at Comerica Park, while this contest will take place at Target Field, and the 29-year-old Boyd has a very pronounced difference pitching at home versus pitching away throughout his career, going 19-19 in Detroit versus 13-32 elsewhere.

Counter to that, however, is his record against the Twins. Somewhat surprisingly for a guy with a 32-51 career record, Boyd actually has an 8-6 record against Minnesota, with a 4.69 ERA and a decent WHIP of 1.121.

Twins Career Stats vs Boyd

Player AB HR RBI AVG.
Ehire Adrianza 18 0 0 .278
Luis Arraez 2 0 0 .000
Alex Avila 4 0 0 .250
Byron Buxton 21 0 1 .048
Jake Cave 6 0 0 .333
Nelson Cruz 15 1 2 .133
Josh Donaldson 11 2 2 .182
Marwin Gonzalez 18 0 2 .444
Max Kepler 20 1 1 .100
Jorge Polanco 41 2 9 .293
Eddie Rosario 38 1 4 .211
Miguel Sano 34 1 2 .118

Twins Try to Solve Tigers Once Again

In three tries, Minnesota has yet to register a win against a team that won just 47 games in 2019 and were pegged to struggle mightily once again this year.

The games have mostly been close this season, with only last Saturday’s 8-2 romp the outlier. That three-game sweep of the Twins was in the midst of Detroit’s season-high six-game winning streak, a run that came to an end with Wednesday’s 8-5 loss in Milwaukee.

Friday’s doubleheader is part of a five-game series between the teams, and Minnesota will be hoping to recapture some of the Twins mojo from years past against the Tigers. Coming into 2020, the Twins had won eight of the previous 10 between the teams, in addition to going 37-20 against them over the past three seasons combined.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (+125)

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