Tigers vs Twins Odds, Betting Lines, and Probable Pitchers (July 28)
- The Minnesota Twins are -150 home favorites over the Detroit Tigers
- The Tigers’ Wily Peralta (3-2, 2.56) will face Twins left-hander J.A. Happ (5-5, 6.14)
- The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction
The Detroit Tigers (48-55, 20-33 away) and Minnesota Twins (43-59, 24-29 home) play the deciding game of their three-game series at 1:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis.
The Tigers ended a four-game losing streak Tuesday night by rallying for a 6-5 victory in 10 innings. Detroit had also lost nine straight road games.
The Twins have lost three of their last four games and nine of 13 but are favored Wednesday.
Tigers vs Twins Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | +130 | +1.5 (-140) | Over 10.5 (-105) |
| Minnesota Twins | -150 | -1.5 (+120) | Under 10.5 (-115) |
Odds as of July 27th at DraftKings.
The moneyline opened with the Twins at -150 and has held steady.
Probable Pitchers
The Tigers plan to start Wily Peralta (3-2, 2.56) while the Twins will go with left-hander J.A. Happ (5-5, 6.14).
Peralta has been one of the biggest surprises in MLB since being called up June 15 from Triple-A Toledo. He did not play in the big leagues last year and had not started a game in the majors since 2017 with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Peralta vs Happ
| 3-2 | Record | 5-5 |
| 2.56 | ERA | 6.14 |
| 3.89 | xERA | 5.50 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.49 |
| 1.64 | SO/W | 2.78 |
Peralta was 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA in his previous five starts before getting hit around last Friday by the Royals in Kansas City. He was tagged for five runs and five hits in 5.2 innings with three strikeouts and three walks.
Nobody's been able to hit the Wily Peralta split-change yet this season pic.twitter.com/te3FOFOQba
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) July 6, 2021
Peralta is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in six games (five starts) on the road this season and 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two starts during the day. Two of his seven starts have been quality ones.
In two starts against the Twins this year, Peralta is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA while giving up one run in 12 innings. He has a 2-3 career record versus the Twins with a 4.28 ERA in 19 games (five starts) and 1-0 with a 3.72 in eight games (three starts) at Target Field.
Happ has struggled in his first season with the Twins after signing as a free agent in the offseason. The 15-year veteran has gone 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA in his four starts.
Giancarlo Stanton home run off J.A. Happ gives the Yankees a 3-0 lead in the first! pic.twitter.com/6EKa7UDiUe
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 11, 2021
In his most recent outing, Happ did not get a decision last Friday against the visiting Los Angeles Angels. He gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings while striking out four and walking one.
Happ has pitched decently at home, though, with a 4-1 record and 4.45 ERA in 10 starts. He is 3-1 with a 4.54 ERA in seven day games. Happ has notched just four quality starts in 18 outings.
Happ is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA against the Tigers in three starts in 2021, yielding yielded 11 runs in 18 innings. Lifetime, he is 4-3 with a 5.22 ERA again them in 14 games (13 starts).
Few Hits, Much Power
Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario is just 5 for 27 (.222) against Happ. However, all five hits have gone for extra bases with two doubles and three homers.
Second baseman Jonathan Schoop’s career-best 16-game hitting streak ended Tuesday when he went 0 for 5.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Tigers Batters | Batting Average vs J.A. Happ |
|---|---|
| Eric Haase | .667 |
| Derek Hill | .667 |
| Akil Baddoo | .500 |
| Grayson Greiner | .500 |
| Jonathan Schoop | .289 |
| Miguel Cabrera | .269 |
| Robbie Grossman | .231 |
| Jeimer Candelario | .227 |
| Willi Castro | .167 |
| Zack Short | .000 |
| Victor Reyes | .000 |
| Twins Batters | Batting Average vs Wily Peralta |
| Josh Donaldson | .333 |
| Miguel Sano | .250 |
| Trevor Larnach | .200 |
| Andrelton Simmons | .143 |
| Max Kepler | .143 |
| Jorge Polanco | .111 |
| Jake Cave | .000 |
| Ryan Jeffers | .000 |
| Willians Astudillo | .000 |
Rookie Eric Haase was the hero as his ninth-inning grand slam tied the game at 5-5 and forced extra innings. Miguel Cabrera singled in the winning run in the 11th.
Miggy now has 5,044 career total bases, tied with George Brett for 20th all time. pic.twitter.com/CrVGwWRfBY
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 28, 2021
Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons is just 2 for 14 (.143) against Peralta. However, catcher Mitch Garver is 5 for 14 (.357) with two doubles, three home runs and four RBIs since coming off the injured list July 19 following surgery for a groin contusion.
Tigers-Twins Pick
The Twins are 8-6 against the Tigers this year but 5-1 at Target Field. Minnesota also holds a commanding 51-30 advantage in the series since the start of the 2017 season.
Recent history, Tuesday notwithstanding, makes the Twins the play here. Add in the fact the bottom may be about to fall out on Peralta’s comeback and Happ pitches better at home and in the day, and the pick looks even stronger.
Pick: Twins (-150)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
