Trout’s Dominance Keeps Devers (+2500) a Massive AL MVP Longshot; Does Red Sox’ Hottest Hitter Have Betting Value?

• Mike Trout is currently a -1200 favorite to win the American League MVP Award
• Rafael Devers has more RBI’s and a better batting average since the All-Star break
• D.J. LeMahieu leads the American League in batting average and has clubbed a career-high 21 home runs

We’re nearing the end of the Major League Baseball regular season and, to no one’s surprise, Mike Trout is the favorite to win the AL MVP award.

Is the race already over or does a longshot, like Boston’s Rafael Devers, still have a chance? Here’s where the odds stand as of August 23rd.

2019 American League MVP Odds

*Odds taken on 8/23/19

Trout Is Crushing the Competition

As my colleague Bob Duff noted in his NL MVP analysis, one of the most important stats for the MVP race in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It’s currently the best tool to determine a player’s overall value.

Trout has an incredible 8.3 WAR this season and nobody else is even close in the American League. Oakland A’s slugger Matt Chapman is second at 5.7, and a big chunk of that is due to his elite defense.

If you expand it across both leagues, Cody Bellinger (8.0) and Christian Yelich (6.0), who are having marvelous seasons, still trail Trout.

When you start to drill down into the numbers, Trout leads the Majors in home runs (42), walks (100), on-base percentage (.440), and leads the American League in OPS and slugging percentage. It’s not even close in most categories. Anyone else who is in the running has a tough case to make.

Devers Is on Fire

One of the reasons this race is not completely over is because Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is having himself an incredible stretch of ball. He’s been good all year, but after the All-Star break, he’s clubbed 11 home runs (in 165 at-bats) with 40 RBIs. He’s batting .339 while posting an OPS of 1.064.

He’s eclipsed Trout in some categories since the All-Star break as he has a better batting average and more RBIs. However, that alone won’t cut it.

When you look at the entire body of work, Trout has 15 more home runs and an on-base percentage that’s nearly 70 points better. And don’t forget about WAR, where Devers (5.1) has a number that’s 3.2 behind Trout.

What About LeMahieu?

According to the oddsmakers, D.J. LeMahieu is the second-favorite. LeMahieu has been a revelation for the New York Yankees. The second baseman had some great seasons with the Colorado Rockies but few people expected him to post a .331 batting average this season and be an All-Star. Most predicted regression now that he didn’t have the benefit of Denver’s rarified air.

LeMahieu’s batting average leads the American League and he has added a career-high 21 home runs, 86 RBIs, and a .908 OPS.

The issue is that, while he’s impressed and while he’s on a better team than Trout, his WAR is just 4.9. Most of his peripheral numbers trail Trout by a wide margin.

What’s the Best Bet?

Obviously, it doesn’t take an expert to tell you that a -1200 wager has a good shot of winning. But I just don’t see any value here. If you’re betting on anyone other than Trout, you’re essentially betting on an injury. If Trout were to get hurt and miss the final month of the season, someone like Devers could catch up.

Even at that point, though, voters may take the injury into account – especially since the Red Sox don’t look like they’re playoff bound. And with LeMahieu, he’s posting career numbers but it’s not good enough to beat out Trout for MVP.

If I was to take a flier on these AL MVP odds, I’d bet on the Field as that gives me guys like Chapman and Marcus Semien. I don’t think either will win, but the A’s are having a playoff-caliber season and, if Trout gets hurt, they could realistically wind-up second in line.

But that’s all we’re betting on here: an injury. Otherwise, Trout has sewn this up.