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Verlander, Astros Big -237 Favorites Over Glasnow, Rays in ALDS Game 1 – Picks & Odds

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 10:59 AM PDT

The Astros host the Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday. By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Tyler Glasnow will be making his playoff debut on Friday.
  • The Rays were 35-30 against teams with a winning record this season.
  • Justin Verlander was 2-0 against Tampa Bay this season and gave up just one run in 12.1 innings of work against them.

The Tampa Bay Rays won their Wild Card game to advance to the ALDS, and now they’ll visit the Houston Astros for Game 1 on Friday.

Houston will put Justin Verlander on the mound against Tyler Glasnow, and with home-field advantage on their side, it’s easy to see why the Astros are a huge favorite.

Are they the best bet in this game, though?

Rays vs Astros Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-107) +218 Over 7 (+105)
Houston Astros -1.5 (-113) -237 Under 7 (-125)

*Odds taken 10/04/19 

Glasnow Is a Wild Card

Tyler Glasnow will get the start on Friday and at first blush, you might not think much of it. He was 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this season. However, Glasnow actually missed action from May 11th to September 8th with a forearm strain, and hasn’t pitched more than 4.1 innings in a start since he returned.

The Rays are hoping to get six innings out of him but it’s a big ask from a guy who hasn’t thrown more than 66 pitches in a game since May. What is encouraging is that he is 4-0 on the road this season with a 0.55 ERA while holding opponents to a .142 average.

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However, starting on the road in the playoffs is a different animal altogether. This will be his playoff debut.

Verlander Has Been Stellar

Not only is Glasnow making his playoff debut on the road, he’s doing it against Verlander, who is probably going to be the American League Cy Young award winner.

This is a guy who went 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. The Astros have won six of his last seven starts.

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Verlander has been special in the ALDS as he’s a perfect 7-0. He has a 2.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in those contests. He’s faced the Rays twice this season and allowed just one earned run, seven hits and a walk in 12.1 innings of work. He’s posted a 0.73 ERA in those starts while holding them to a .159 batting average.

What’s The Best Bet?

Taking a look at the Rays vs Astros Game 1 odds, the Astros look like the play as there are many reasons to bet against Tampa Bay. They’re on the road and while I know they were a good road team this season, away games in the playoffs are a completely different atmosphere.

The Rays were just 1-2 this season as a road dog of +175 to +250.

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Beyond that, we see a difference in quality as the Rays were just 35-30 against teams with a winning record while the Astros were 45-32. Houston was also 60-21 at home and 22-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 for a profitable +4.9 units.

Then you have the Verlander factor as he’s 10-4 in his career against the Rays and 2-0 this season. Even so, I don’t love the huge price tag here. I just don’t like laying huge numbers like this no matter the situation.

Houston warrants a small play on the moneyline but the runline is probably the better way to go to knock down some juice.

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