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Yankees vs Astros Game 2 Predictions & Odds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 7:54 AM PST

Houston Astros celebration
Oct 19, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (right) celebrates with left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) after hitting a home run against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning in game one of the ALCS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
  • Houston is a heavy -165 moneyline favorite in the Yankees vs Astros odds for Game 2 of the ALCS on Thursday (Oct. 20)
  • Luis Severino (2022 Playoffs: 0-0, 4.76 ERA) takes the mound for New York, while Houston gives the ball to Framber Valdez (2022 Playoffs: 0-0, 3.18 ERA)
  • The complete Yankees vs Astros Game 2 odds are below, plus analysis and best bets

The Bronx Bombers got a taste of their own medicine in Game 1 of the ALCS. New York, who led the MLB in homers by a wide margin during the regular season, coughed up three dingers to Houston en route to a 4-2 defeat.

The Yankees will now look to salvage a series split on the road on Thursday before heading back to New York, but oddsmakers are not bullish on their chances.

Yankees vs Astros Game 2 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Yankees +140 +1.5 (-155) O 7 (-110)
Houston Astros -165 -1.5 (+135) U 7 (-110)

Odds as of October 20 at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on Game 2 of the ALCS. 

The Astros are currently -165 moneyline favorites in Game 2, in a matchup that features a total of 7. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 pm ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, with 70+ degree game-time temperatures on deck.

As for the series odds, the Astros are -340 favorites in the AL Pennant odds, with the Yankees coming back as a +285 underdog. Houston is also the commanding +105 favorite in the World Series odds.

 

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New York vs Houston Probable Pitchers

After holding New York to two runs in Game 1 thanks to a brilliant Justin Verlander performance, the Astros will turn to lefty Framber Valdez in Game 2. Valdez pitched well in his 2022 playoff debut, holding the Mariners to four hits and two runs over 5.2 innings in the ALDS, while striking out six.

The southpaw faced the Yankees once during the regular season, yielding only two hits and three runs over 6 innings in a no-decision. Valdez is 4-2 in 10 career postseason appearances, and is fresh off setting career-bests in wins, ERA, strikeouts and innings during the regular season.

Severino vs Valdez 2022 Stats

Luis Severino
VS
Framber Valdez
14-5 Record 17-6
3.91 ERA 2.82
1.13 WHIP 1.16
.246 OBA .223
4.7 SO/W Ratio 2.9

New York will counter with Luis Severino. The team’s number three starter was underwhelming in his 2022 postseason debut, allowing eight and three runs over 5.2 innings to the Guardians in a 6-5 defeat.

Severino finished the regular season strong allowing two runs or less in five of his final six starts, and pitched very well against Houston this season. He held the Astros to a .186 batting average over two starts, striking out 11 over 12 innings of work.

Yankees vs Astros Betting Analysis

The Bronx Bombers managed just five hits in Game 1, but the underwhelming performance was something we saw coming. New York was just 24 hours removed from a series clinching ALDS victory, and were celebrating perhaps a little too hard with a game the very next day.

We should feel more optimistic about their prospects in Game 2, even if Valdez has fared well against them in the past. The Yankees boasted a better slash line versus lefties than righties this season, and they can field a powerful lineup of virtually all right handed bats, led by bash brothers Giancarlo Stanton and AL MVP odds favorite Aaron Judge.

Houston meanwhile, mustered seven hits against New York’s pitching but was bailed out by the long ball. The Astros smacked three home runs, while rookie Jeremy Pena went deep for the second straight game.

The 25-year-old is tearing the cover of the ball this postseason, going 3-for-4 in Game 1, after registering six hits in his previous four games.

His performance has made up for the fact that Jose Altuve is 0-for-19 this postseason, while Yordan Alvarez is hitless in his last nine at-bats, although he has drawn three walks.

Yankees vs Astros Prediction

The public is all over the Astros on the run line, but to me this game screams over. The market is reacting that way as well as 73% of the over/under bets and 89% of the money wagered on the total is currently backing over 7 runs.

New York, who’s offense ranked top-three in nearly every key offensive category during the regular season, should rebound in this spot, while Houston can easily do their part to push this game over as well.

These were two of the top-three scoring teams in the American League, and seven runs is simply too low without a superstar pitcher on the bump for either side.

Pick: Over 7 (-110)

 

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