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Yankees’ World Series Odds Continue to Improve After Overtaking Rays in AL East

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 12:10 PM PDT

Masahiro Tanaka
Masahiro Tanaka is 3-3 with a sparking 2.94 ERA. Photo by Hayden Schiff (flickr) [CC License].
  • The New York Yankees lead the American League East
  • The Yankees have put 17 different players on the injured list
  • The Yankees started 6-9 but are 29-9 since

The New York Yankees have had to deal with an incredible amount of injuries this season. Even so, they’ve persevered and after a strong month of May, are back at the top of the American League East. Their World Series odds have improved from +670 on May 14th to +550 on May 27th. Are they a good bet to win it all at this point?

2019 World Series Odds

Team 2019 World Series Odds
Houston Astros +350
Los Angeles Dodgers +375
New York Yankees +500
Minnesota Twins +850
Philadelphia Phillies +1000
Tampa Bay Rays +1200
Boston Red Sox +1300
Chicago Cubs +1300
Atlanta Braves +1500
Milwaukee Brewers +1700

*Odds taken 05/27/2019

Yankees Have Been on Fire in May

It’s no secret that the Yankees have had to deal with a slew of injuries. They’ve already had to place 17 players on the injured list, totaling 733 days of players missing in action. That’s more than the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Seattle Mariners had all of last year.

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Despite all of that, the Yankees have risen in May. They were just 17-13 on May 1st but are 18-4 since then. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays are just 13-10 in their last 23 games. That’s allowed the Yankees to climb into first place in the American League East.

Starting Pitching Still a Concern for New York

When you start taking a look at teams to win it all, you have to look for a roster with the pitching to do it. While I do like the Yankees’ bullpen, I have some concerns about their starting rotation. In the playoffs, you need at least two ace-caliber – or close to it – starters. Masahiro Tanaka has been the guy for the Yankees so far and they have James Paxton, but I don’t know if that’s enough, particularly given the fact that Luis Severino is still on the shelf.

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Tanaka has a 1.12 WHIP this season – right around where he’s been in the past – and has been decent in the playoffs throughout his career. He’s a solid no. 2. Can Paxton be the ace? He’s frequently banged up. He has three starts this season where he’s allowed 12 runs and he’s allowed just one run in his other outings.

A healthy Paxton and the addition of one more quality starter would make me feel comfortable betting them. At this point, I don’t see them having the starting pitching to win it all.

Astros Remain the Team to Beat

How can you not like the Astros right now? Justin Verlander is throwing fire (0.74 WHIP), while Gerrit Cole has been right there with him (1.05). Even Wade Miley and Brad Peacock have been steady starters. Their bullpen is strong with Roberto Osuna at the back end and Ryan Pressly setting him up.

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As for the batting lineup, this team is scary-good. There are four regulars batting .300 or more and that doesn’t include Jose Altuve, who has struggled to start the season. There are five players who have at least nine home runs already. And don’t forget they still have Yordan Alvarez just waiting for a call-up; he’s the best hitter in the minors.

As of right now, this is the team I’d bet to win it all. They have looked the best, have the experience, and have the horses to go the distance.

Pick: Houston Astros (+350)

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