UFC Vegas 39 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – Dern vs Rodriuez
- Mackenzie Dern gets her first UFC main event against Marina Rodriguez on October 9, 2021
- A fan-favorite welterweight clash happens in the co-main event as Randy Brown battles Jared Gooden
- See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 39 main card, below
The UFC remains at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 39 on Saturday, October 9. In the main event, top-10 strawweights collide as Mackenzie Dern battles Marina Rodriguez. Dern is a slight -155 favorite to keep her winning streak going and win her first UFC main event in the UFC Vegas 39 odds.
UFC Vegas 39 airs live on ESPN+ with the main card at 4 PM EST. The table below shows odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.
Make sure to check out the latest sportsbook promos before placing your bets for UFC Vegas 39.
UFC Vegas 39 Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | -155 |
| Marina Rodriguez | +135 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Randy Brown | -240 |
| Jared Gooden | +195 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Tim Elliott | +165 |
| Matheus Nicolau | -195 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Mariya Agapova | +130 |
| Sabina Mazo | -150 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Phil Hawes | -280 |
| Deron Winn | +220 |
All odds as of Oct. 4th at DraftKings
Does Dern Continue Her Winning Streak?
Mackenzie Dern is someone many thought would be a future champion when she signed to the UFC. After a setback against Amanda Ribas in 2019, she changed camps and has rallied off four straights wins and could be a win away from a title shot. Yet, Marina Rodriguez is always dangerous as she has legit KO power alongside her phenomenal boxing.
Dern & Rodriguez Recent Fights
| Nina Nunes, win by submission | Fight 1 | Michelle Waterson, win by decision |
| Virna Jandiroba, win by decision | Fight 2 | Amanda Ribas, win by TKO |
| Randa Markos, win by submission | Fight 3 | Carla Esparza, loss by decision |
| Hannah Cifers, win by submission | Fight 4 | Cynthia Calvillo, draw |
This is a really intriguing matchup as it’s a classic striker vs. grappler matchup as Dern will look to get it to the mat while Rodriguez will want to keep it standing and look for the KO. Both women also struggle in the other person’s strong suit, as Dern’s striking leaves a lot to be desired, however, Rodriguez has been taken down at will and has a hard time getting back up to her feet.
However, Dern has been working with Jason Parillo in her last four fights to improve her striking. Rodriguez, meanwhile, does throw a lot of punches and elbows off her back to try and inflict as much damage as possible.
Dern & Rodriguez Stats
| 28 | Age | 34 |
| 5’4″ | Height | 5’6″ |
| 63″ | Reach | 65″ |
| 4 | UFC Finishes | 1 |
Rodriguez had her first UFC main event in her last fight, which was also short notice and she went five rounds no problem. Dern, meanwhile, has never gone five rounds before so whether or not she has the cardio to go 25 minutes is still uncertain, but she hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down in her career.
In the opening moments of the fight, I do expect it to start standing as Dern tries to get a feel of Rodriguez’s striking and the range she needs to be to get a takedown. Rodriguez, meanwhile, will be on her back foot to avoid the takedown as if she gets taken down, the fight could be over like that with Dern’s jiu-jitsu.
Ultimately, I do think Dern will be able to take Rodriguez down as we have seen worse grapplers like Waterson and Markos get Rodriguez down and have success. On the mat, Dern will eventually find an arm and get an armbar in the second or third round to extend her winning streak.
Pick: Mackenzie Dern (-155)
Can Gooden Pull Off The Upset?
Randy Brown is coming off an impressive submission win over Alex Oliveira, and he now gets a relative short-notice fight against Jared Gooden as both men took the fight on only a couple of weeks’ notice.
Brown & Gooden Recent Fights
| Alex Oliveira, win by submission | Fight 1 | Niklas Stolze, win by KO |
| Vicente Luque, loss by TKO | Fight 2 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov, loss by decision |
| Warlley Alves, win by submission | Fight 3 | Alan Jouban, loss by decision |
| Bryan Barberena, win by TKO | Fight 4 | Trent McCown, win by TKO |
This should be a fun fight as both Brown and Gooden always come forward and look for the knockout punch. However, Brown is the more well-rounded fighter and has the ability to take Gooden down and find a submission to secure the win.
Ultimately, I expect it to remain standing for the most part where Brown will hurt Gooden in the second or third and either finish him with ground and pound or will just sink in a choke. Regardless, I like Brown to win this fight and win it inside the distance.
Pick: Randy Brown (-240)
Other UFC Vegas 39 Picks:
- Matheus Nicolau (-195): Nicolau can hang on the feet, but I expect him to submit Elliott as the veteran flyweight leaves his neck open for his opponents to grab ahold of it and get the choke.
- Mariya Agapova (+130): Agapova had a terrible fight last time out, but I expect her to conserve her energy more and be able to piece up Mazo on the feet and get her to the ground and control her to earn a decision.
- Phil Hawes (-280): Hawes can keep this fight standing, and pick apart Winn and I think he will be able to hurt him enough and get a TKO win.
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
