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Andre Drummond Favored to Lead NBA in Rebounds in 2018-19

Andre Drummond defends John Wall
Andre Drummond is projected to lead the league in rebounding again in 2018-19. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License]
  • BetOnline believes Andre Drummond will lead the NBA in rebounding in 2018-19
  • Will Detroit miss enough shots to give him a chance at the title?
  • Does Drummond represent the best value available at +150?

The Detroit Pistons won’t win much in 2018-19, but fans can at least take solace in the fact that Andre Drummond is favored to win the league’s rebounding title. BetOnline is giving the two-time All-Star +150 odds to grab more boards than anyone else in the league this season.

Drummond won the rebounding title in 2017-18 and his 15.99 per game average was the most since 1996-97 when Dennis Rodman hauled in 16.05 caroms per contest for the Chicago Bulls.

Odds to Lead the NBA in Rebounds Per Game in 2018-19

Player Odds to lead the NBA in Rebounds Per Game at BetOnline
Andre Drummond +150
DeAndre Jordan +300
Karl-Anthony Towns +750
Anthony Davis +800
Rudy Gobert +800
Dwight Howard +900
Hassan Whiteside +900
Joel Embiid +1500
Clint Capela +2200
Kevin Love +2500
Nikola Jokic +2500
Deandre Ayton +2500
Enes Kanter +2500
Giannis Antetokounmpo +5000
Russell Westbrook +5000
LeBron James +5000

There are three reasons to believe Drummond is a lock to win the title again:

1. Andre Drummond is Durable

One of the keys to winning a rebounding title is simply staying on the court, and few players have done a better job of that over the course of their careers than Drummond. The ultra-dependable big man has appeared in at least 81 games four times and has missed just seven games over the past five seasons. His every day availability gives him a tremendous leg up on a player like Joel Embiid, who has appeared in just 94 games since being drafted in 2014, or Rudy Gobert, who missed 26 games in 2017-18.

2. Andre Drummond is Dependable

You wouldn’t want to depend on Drummond in a free-throw shooting contest, but the man can flat out rebound. “Big Penguin” has averaged 14.26 rebounds per game over the last five years and hasn’t dipped below 13.2 boards since his sophomore season in 2013-14. His consistency gives him a tremendous advantage over Dwight Howard, whose rebounding totals have been on the downswing since 2012, and Hassan Whiteside, whose rebounding average dropped by 2.7 boards last season as his minutes declined.

Drummond has averaged 14.26 rebounds per game over the last five years and hasn’t dipped below 13.2 boards since his sophomore season in 2013-14.

3. Detroit is Going to Miss a Ton of Shots

Sorry Pistons fans, but your team can’t hit the broadside of a barn. Detroit finished 23rd in field goal percentage (45%), 25th in free-throw percentage (74.5%), and 26th in true shooting percentage (54.3%) in 2017-18. That isn’t likely to improve this season as Reggie Jackson and Blake Griffin should both be available for a full season of contested threes and ill-advised jump shots. Add it all up and Drummond should have plenty of errant shots to haul in.

Past 5 NBA Rebounding Leaders

Year Player Team Rebounds Per Game
2017-18 Andre Drummond Detroit Pistons 15.99
2016-17 Hassan Whiteside Miami Heat 14.13
2015-16 Andre Drummond Detroit Pistons 14.79
2014-15 DeAndre Jordan Los Angeles Clippers 14.95
2013-14 DeAndre Jordan Los Angeles Clippers 13.59

There are two other players to consider, both of whom play in the Western Conference. First up is two-time rebounding champion DeAndre Jordan, who signed with the Mavericks in the offseason. The 6’11” pogo stick has averaged 15 rebounds per game twice in the last four seasons and, like Drummond, is an iron man who seldom misses a game.

Next up is Anthony Davis, who has averaged over 11 boards per game in each of the last two seasons, and should have more opportunities to corral rebounds with the departure of DeMarcus Cousins. The Brow averaged 1.1 more rebounds after Cousins went down with a thorn Achilles in late January and upped his average to a career high 13.4 rpg in the playoffs against the Trail Blazers and Warriors.

The Pick

Jordan and Davis are both alluring picks, but they carry enormous risk. Jordan turned 30 this summer and will soon begin losing the world-class quickness and athleticism that has made him such a force in the paint. Davis, meanwhile, has never played a full season and may fall short of the 70 games players need to qualify for the league’s rebounding title.

That leaves us with Drummond. You won’t get much value at +150, but the Pistons’ big man is the clear cut choice given his age, durability, and consistency. Detroit’s only other viable center is Zaza Pachulia, so the 25-year-old Drummond should see enough minutes (and more than enough misses) to win back-to-back titles.

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