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Anthony Davis +240 Favorite in Opening 2020-21 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Nov 25, 2020 · 12:00 PM PST

Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis celebrates during the second half in Game 5 of basketball's NBA Finals against the Miami Heat in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)
  • Anthony Davis opens as the betting favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year
  • Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the mix once again, as is Rudy Gobert
  • Where does the value lie in DPOY betting? See odds, analysis, and our best bet below

Giannis Antetokounmpo became the third player in NBA history to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year last season. The Greek Freak, however, is not favored to defend his DPOY crown. Anthony Davis, a four-time All-Defense selection, is the odds-opening favorite to claim the award.

Last season’s finalists are the three favorites for 2021’s Defensive Player of the Year. Bam Adebayo, who was unlucky to miss out on Most Improved Player last season, is the fourth favorite at +650. As the odds open, this quartet are clear of the rest.

The table below has the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Player Odds to win Defensive Player of the Year
Anthony Davis +240
Giannis Antetokounmpo +325
Rudy Gobert +325
Bam Adebayo +650
Joel Embiid +1400
Draymond Green +2000
Kawhi Leonard +2500
Ben Simmons +3000
Myles Turner +3000
Ivica Zubac +4000
Marcus Smart +4000
Kristaps Porzingis +5000
Robert Covington +5000
Jarrett Allen +8000
Kyle Lowry +8000

Odds taken Nov. 25 at William Hill

New-look Lakers Impact Davis’ Cause

Anthony Davis was a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year last season. The Lakers owned the third-best defensive rating in the regular season, and Davis was the cornerstone of their defense. Whether playing the four or five, Davis was impacting opponent’s possessions all over the floor. The Lakers open the 2020-21 campaign as strong NBA championship odds favorites to retain their crown, and maintaining high-level play on the defensive end will be a big part of that effort.

With LeBron James expected to rest often in the regular season, more responsibility falls to Davis on both ends. They are without the leadership of Rajon Rondo, and their roster is weaker from a defensive viewpoint. Marc Gasol is still an above-average defensive player but, Davis will have to compensate for Montrezl Harrell’s weaknesses on that end of the floor.

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Having lost Rondo, Danny Green, and Dwight Howard it will be a more impressive feat for the Lakers to be an elite defensive team. Davis’ brilliance as a defender, his length to disrupt shots, his ability to switch on to and lock down smaller players, will be even more obvious.

The Antetokounmpo Narrative

Consecutive playoff disappointments and an ultra-win-now offseason have altered the narrative around Giannis Antetokounmpo. Voter fatigue is a very real thing in the NBA, and the two-time reigning MVP will come up against that in 2020-21. He has to take his game to another level to compete for awards.

Repeating last season’s standards should be enough to get him first-place Defensive Player of the Year votes, but his chances of winning it depend on the Bucks’ defense. They were historically good on that end in 2019-20, which helped Antetokounmpo’s case against Rudy Gobert and Davis.

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The next step for Antetokounmpo as a defender is to step up to the biggest assignments. It’s fresh in the memory that he didn’t guard Jimmy Butler in the playoffs – voters will want to see Antetokounmpo impact the opponent’s best scorer in fourth quarters this season, regardless of their position.

He’s rightly a favorite, but the nature of award voting means Antetokounmpo isn’t a great bet at that price.

Gobert Chases Third Award

Gobert is one of the best defensive bigs of the last decade. He’s already won this award twice, and he’s rightly among the favorites to make it three in 2020-21. The Frenchman led the league in ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus last season at 4.85 – no one else was better than 4.45 by that metric.

Opponents are scared to attack the basket when Gobert is nearby. They shot just 48.4% on attempts from six feet or closer when Gobert was defending them – only Milwaukee’s bigs, Ivica Zubac, and Goga Bitadze recorded a better mark.

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Having been top three in defensive rating in each of the last three seasons, the Jazz were 13th in that category last season. That hurt Gobert’s candidacy. Gobert perhaps dropped off slightly from years’ past but, he’s at a fundamental disadvantage when being compared to Antetokounmpo, Davis, and others.

Gobert is fantastic at what he does. He’s still very limited as a defender, and cannot switch like many other contenders for the award. In a league where switching has become commonplace, Gobert’s limitations count against him in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Miami’s Adebayo Reliance

Bam Adebayo is a phenomenal defensive player. He can battle with the biggest centers in the league and he can switch onto players like Kemba Walker and stay in front of them. Miami’s run to the NBA Finals was a team-wide effort but, Adebayo’s defensive impact made him their most important player. He grants Erik Spoelstra so much flexibility.

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The Heat were just 11th in defensive rating last season, something that likely needs to improve for Adebayo to win this award. The addition of Avery Bradley will help, and there’s an expectation of improvement on that end of the floor from Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro.

Adebayo is a good bet at +650. With a bit of help from his young teammates, the former Kentucky big man can carry this Heat defense from above-average to elite.

Simmons Presents Value

Continuing on this theme, Ben Simmons is one of the longer odds options to consider. Simmons, like Davis, Antetokounmpo, and Adebayo, is a brilliant athlete. He has size and lateral quickness. He can guard all five positions and will take the toughest assignment most nights.

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Perhaps the presence of another Defensive Player of the Year candidate harms his chances. Joel Embiid is going to rest plenty this season, though, giving Simmons yet more responsibility on the defensive end.

Simmons was third in deflections per game last season and earned his first All-Defense selection. It was a surprise to see him as long as +3000 – he’s well worth backing at that price if he’s fully healthy for opening night.

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