Best Futures Bets to Make for Rest of 2021 NBA Season

• The second half of the 2021 NBA season begins with two games on Wednesday night
• The MVP race currently favors Joel Embiid and LeBron James, but James Harden presents an intriguing bet
• See more intriguing futures bets to make for the second half of the season within the story below

It is easy to say the Lakers and Nets are destined to meet in the NBA Finals. Too easy.

Everyone expected it to be the Lakers or Clippers vs the Bucks a year ago, and we all remember how Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo sort of ruined everyone’s expectations.

So today, we look ahead at the second half of the NBA season with one overriding thought in mind: What we expect to happen is not necessarily going to happen. And the way for sports gamblers to capitalize on that is to try to stay one step ahead of the books.

With that in mind, let’s look at a couple of value bets that are out there for those wishing to take a chance on two outlier teams to win their respective conferences, and two players toiling in New York to win awards in which their odds are relatively long right now.

Let’s start with the MVP race, where Joel Embiid is the favorite and LeBron James is No. 2. The guy we are taking the closest look at is James Harden – who has taken over the Brooklyn Nets offensively and is leading the league in assists.

2021 NBA MVP Odds

Odds taken from each book on March 9th

Is Harden Worth Betting at His Current Price?

When  we wrote recently that Devin Booker was not all of that bad of an MVP sleeper pick, Harden’s MVP odds were +3300 at DraftKings and +3500 at Fan Duel.

According to BetMGM spokesman John Ewing, 3.4% of tickets and 2.3% of handle are on Harden, who has him listed at odds of +1600. Harden is +1400 at PointsBet, where he has accounted for 6% of the bet count (4^th most bet player) and 5% of handle – the 4^th highest percentage in that category.

As a former MVP voter (I voted for 11 consecutive years while working at ESPN and SheridanHoops.com), I can tell you that a majority of voters do not make up their minds until at least 95 percent of the season has been played, and we are only at the mid-point.  So while the sportsbooks are kind of convinced as to where this thing is going, the NBA writers who vote in the award have the final say – and they have another 10 weeks until their ballots are due.

Bottom line: Harden is still available at a nice price. But if the Nets move into first place in the East over the next few days, you will not get him at that price.

Next up is Most Improved Player, which has been somewhat volatile and is currently being paced by a player on a horrible team.

2021 NBA Most Improved Player Odds

Julius Randle Charging Hard for MIP

Grant was a solid player for the Thunder two years ago and for the Nuggets last season, and this year he is far and away the best player on the Detroit Pistons, who just bought out Blake Griffin and have already traded Derrick Rose, signalling a full-fledged youth movement over the second half of the season.

If Grant and the Pistons finish in last place in the East, that is going to make it difficult for voters to justify a first-place vote for Grant, despite his numbers being up from  12 points and 3.5 rebounds to 23.4 points and 5.3 rebounds per night.

Wood looked like the runaway winner of this award after the first four weeks of the season, but he has been out since Feb. 4 with an ankle injury, and the Rockets have lost 13 in a row. So again, the “horrible team” factor comes into play with voters.

That leaves Randle, who was already a terrific player but was not an All-Star, which he became this season. His team is actually doing better than the Celtics, who have Brown as the second-best player on a highly underachieving team. Voters like players whose teams exceed expectations, which is why Randle looks quite playable in this category.

His odds are favorable because of stuff like this from FanDuel spokesman Kevin Hennessey: “The Top three players by handle in the Most Improved NBA player market are Jerami Grant, Jaylen Brown and Christian Wood. Percentage of bet count and handle on Julius Randle of New York Knicks to win Most Improved Player is 12.5% of bet count and 12.6% of handle.“

Remember this about Randle: The voters like to reward a player who was key to his team’s success. Grant and Wood are having very good seasons for very bad teams. Randle is a stud for a vastly improved Knicks team. His scoring is up 3.7 points per game, his rebounds are up 2.2, his assists are up from 3.1 to 5.5, and his 3-point shooting is better by 13.1 percent.

2021 Eastern and Western Conference Odds

Heat & Suns Still Dark Horses at the Books

The Jazz lead the West by 2.5 games over the Phoenix Suns, who entered the break on a four-game winning streak that coincided with swoons by the Jazz, Lakers and Clippers. Remember when the Suns went 8-0 in the bubble and we all felt it was unfair that they were not rewarded for that?

Well, they added Chris Paul  and Jae Crowder in the offseason, they went into the break by beating the Lakers by 10 and the Warriors by 22, and since Jan. 28 they are 16-3. They also begin the second half of the season with a cupcake schedule.

Miami  made it to the NBA Finals last season and has underachieved mostly because of injuries. But the Heat have basically the same core that went all the way through the first three rounds last season, and they enter the second half of the season having won seven of eight.

They, too, have a cupcake schedule to open the second half, and they will see the Sixers, Bucks and Nets only once more apiece and have three against Indiana, Chicago and Cleveland, plus two against Memphis. They could finish top three if the Bucks, Sixers or Nets falter, and then anything can happen in the playoffs. Their price represents value.