Carmelo Anthony Projected to Average 9.5 PPG in Portland; Given -150 Odds to Finish Season With Blazers

• Carmelo Anthony finally returns to the NBA with the Portland Trail Blazers
• After reaching the WCF last season, Portland has gotten off to a dismal 5-8 start this season
• Can Melo make it through the rest of the season without hitting the eject button?

Although the Portland Trail Blazers have always been outsiders in the NBA Conference Odds, their price has further slipped over the last week or so. Portland were +2200 on November 5^th – the odds had fallen to +3200 by November 12^th after a combination of poor results and injuries have hurt their chances.

Needing to make a move to bolster a weak supporting cast, the Blazers signed future Hall-of-Famer Carmelo Anthony.

Anthony has been out of the league for a year, and has attracted lots of betting attention on his return. Online betting sites have provided a couple of interesting props that we’ll take a look at in this piece.

Carmelo Anthony Points-Per-Game Prop

All Odds taken Nov. 18.

Carmelo to Hit the Over

Anthony averaged over 20 points per game from his rookie year through to 2016-17. That streak ended when he joined Paul George and Russell Westbrook on the Thunder, though the former New York Knick still managed 16.2 per game.

His ten-game, ill-fated spell with the Houston Rockets last season was a disaster, but Anthony still scored at a good rate, notching 13.4 points per game.

The defensive end is what cost him his spot on the Rockets, and ultimately made the situation untenable alongside James Harden and Chris Paul. It is what will have put teams off. For all the questions of his fit offensively, it has been defense that has blocked his path back into the NBA.

Carmelo Anthony is BACK 7️⃣

? 25,551 career points (22nd all-time)
? 24 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.0 APG career averages
? 10x All-Star
? 6x All-NBA
? 2012-13 NBA Scoring Champ pic.twitter.com/b5vqZhOvMB

— Whistle (@WhistleSports) November 16, 2019

This is what is interesting about the points per game line at 9.5. Given his track record, it seems incredibly low, but the defense plays a huge part. The question for Anthony, more than if he can score at that rate, is if he can stay on the floor for enough minutes. If his defense allows him to play 20 or more minutes per game, he will cruise past 9.5 per game.

With Portland so depleted at the forward spots, the minutes are there for Anthony. The Blazers need his scoring, even if it’s just to allow Damian Lillard more time on the bench (he’s playing a ridiculous 38.5 minutes per game at the moment).

Terry Stotts will not be expecting great things defensively – Anthony needs to avoid being a glaring liability, and the 9.5 will be easily achieved.

The desperation of Portland, and Anthony’s natural scoring ability, make the over the best option here.

Pick: Over 9.5 PPG (-120)

Odds Carmelo Anthony Lasts Entire Season With Portland

Team Success to Define Anthony’s Season

Whether Anthony is on the Blazers until the end of the season will depend mainly on how well the team does.

Anthony has talked the talk about being a bench player. It remains to be seen if that role means sixth man or somewhere towards the end of the bench, but he should be able to get minutes ahead of Mario Hezonja and Skal Labissiere. With Zach Collins out until well into 2020, we should see Anthony become an established member of the rotation.

Portland are 5-8. Minnesota, Phoenix and Dallas are already a few games ahead. Regardless of Anthony accepting his role, the Trail Blazers could look to move on from him in the second half of the season if things don’t improve. Should the playoffs slip out of their reach, Portland might focus on player development rather than squeezing the final NBA minutes from Anthony.

The signing of Anthony cannot turn Portland’s season around single-handedly. CJ McCollum needs to produce more displays like his 32-point outing in Saturday’s win over San Antonio. Kent Bazemore needs to hit a few more shots.

Getting that extra scoring off the bench will help Stotts immensely. Lillard’s extra minutes of rest would be helpful, particularly later in the season. It is not far fetched to suggest the Blazers are in the mix for the eight seed by the end of November (their schedule is relatively favorable).

It’s hard to see Anthony walking away if he’s getting regular minutes. He was so desperate to return, and unless Portland crumble and focus on their younger players, it seems likely he’ll stay until the end of the season.

Pick: Yes (-150)