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Despite Pelicans Looking to Trade Lonzo Ball, Odds Suggest He Stays in New Orleans

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Jan 28, 2021 · 12:27 PM PST

Lonzo Ball
Could Lonzo Ball's days in New Orleans be numbered? (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have been making calls to trade Lonzo Ball
  • Reports indicate the Pels are open to trading Ball, JJ Redick and Eric Bledsoe
  • Odds currently favor Lonzo staying in New Orleans – should you bet on him being dealt?

Lonzo Ball has become the center of NBA trade rumors. The New Orleans Pelicans are 6-10, leaving them 14th in the Western Conference. Reports claim the Pels have been making calls to trade Ball, JJ Redick and Eric Bledsoe.

Speaking on The Jump on Wednesday, Brian Windhorst reported the Pelicans are looking to open up minutes for second-year guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker and rookie Kira Lewis.

Even with the Rockets spending much of the season in disarray, the Mavericks being hit by COVID-19 and the Grizzlies playing several games without Ja Morant, the Pelicans are outsiders in the NBA Divisional Odds. Stan Van Gundy’s appointment has not brought wins and the backcourt fit has been awful.

Odds Pelicans Trade Lonzo Ball

Which Team Will Lonzo Ball Be on After the 2021 Trade Deadline? Odds
New Orleans Pelicans -250
Los Angeles Clippers +550
Dallas Mavericks +800
New York Knicks +800
Toronto Raptors +800
Orlando Magic +800
Charlotte Hornets +950
Will Lonzo Ball Be Traded Before the Deadline? Odds
Yes +155
No -220

Odds as of Jan 28th

Lonzo Struggles

In four seasons in the NBA, Lonzo Ball has been a good shooter for one campaign. Even then, his true scoring was just 51.7%. It’s down to 48.6% this season, roughly where it was in his second and final Lakers season.

Ball’s three-point shooting has cratered from a career-best 37.5% in 2019-20 – he’s down at 30% on the season.

While the defense remains good to great, Ball is not playing well on the offensive end. He’s a non-factor in the half court. His assists have dropped from seven to 4.6 per game. An inability to shoot free throws (49.3% from the line for his career) has made him extremely reluctant to attack the basket. Ball is averaging a career-low 0.9 free throw attempts per game – he’s shooting a woeful 18% at the rim this season.

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The highlight alley-oops to Zion Williamson have barely featured in 2020-21. Ball is in the 17th percentile in turnover rate and has seen his assist to usage drop. The Pels are playing slow under Van Gundy, and it doesn’t suit the former second overall pick. This is the worst halfcourt offense in the league, and Ball’s deficiencies are a big part in that.

Is a Trade Even Possible?

All of this contributes to the Pelicans being in an impossible position. Ball has deflated his value with his performances this season. The Pelicans were unable to agree an extension in the offseason – it is understandable if they would rather move on from Ball than risk overpaying or losing him for nothing in the offseason.

The trouble, though, is finding teams which can justify giving up anything of note for the former Laker. Some will still believe in his upside, but a guard who is so limited in the halfcourt can be a liability on the offensive end. Only teams stacked with shooting can really make a case for trading for Ball, and even then, they will wonder whether the benefit of his passing and defense is worth the downside.

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Even if Ball never develops beyond a Ricky Rubio level of point guard, he has sufficient talent to be of some value to teams. If the Pelicans are happy to take a heavily protected first, or are just willing to trade Ball for a discount price ahead of his restricted free agency, some front office will take a flyer on him. There’s value backing Lonzo to be traded before the deadline at +155.

Potential Lonzo Ball Trades

It makes sense for the Clippers to be favorite to trade for Ball. They still need a point guard, but they are very limited when it comes to trade assets. Ball might also be considered too much of a project player for the win-now Clips to make a deal.

A rebuilding team makes more sense. Perhaps a front office sees him as the ideal buy-low prospect. Links to the Knicks are inevitable, and his defensive ability will be appealing to Tom Thibodeau, but New York doesn’t exactly need another poor shooter.

Orlando hopes they have their two guards of the future in Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz. With Fultz out long-term, though, they might consider a bargain trade for Ball to run their offense for the rest of the year – they made a similar deal to acquire Fultz from Philadelphia.

The Clippers and Magic are probably the best bets on the board. Though not listed above, the point guard-needing Chicago Bulls are a team to keep an eye on.

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