Jazz vs Nuggets Odds and Picks

• The Utah Jazz will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets on Sunday, January 16 at 8 pm ET
• The Jazz, who have lost four straight, are 2-0 against Denver this season and will look to get back in the win column
• Continue reading for odds, analysis and a pick for this game
  

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The Denver Nuggets (22-19) will host the Utah Jazz (28-14) on Sunday, January 16, in the second game of a back to back for the home team.  The Nuggets are coming off of a dominant win against the Los Angeles Lakers, while the Jazz are looking to right their ship following a four game losing streak.

Utah is currently a 4-point favorite in this matchup.

Jazz vs Nuggets Odds

Odds as of Jan. 15th from FanDuel.

The last time these two teams played, on January 5, the Jazz defeated the Nuggets in Denver by a final score of 115-109. Bojan Bogdanovic led the way for the Jazz with 36 points and 13 rebounds, while Rudy Gay scored 18 points and Donovan Mitchell added 17 points. Nikola Jokic led Denver with 26 points, while Will Barton and Monte Morris scored 20 apiece.

In their only other matchup this season, the Jazz hosted the Nuggets in Utah and came away with a 12-point victory on October 26.

The Nuggets are 11-7 at home this season, while the Jazz are 14-6 on the road.

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

The Jazz currently lead the NBA in points per game, averaging 115.1 PPG this season. However, during their last three games they are only averaging 106.7 PPG. I wouldn’t worry too much about that, though: This Jazz team is too good to lose their groove for long, and Denver’s defense presents a unique opportunity for Utah to get back to their winning ways.

16 points at the break for @epaschall pic.twitter.com/xuRYVwAq3L

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) January 13, 2022

While at first glance it looks like this matchup favors Denver, Utah has some unique advantages that should give them the edge. The Nuggets are ranked 9th in scoring defense, surrendering an average of 105.7 PPG. That being said, they are ranked 20th in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%), allowing an eFG% of 52.9%. Why this discrepancy? Well, Denver ranks 7th in opponent three-point shooting percentage (33.8%), but the Nuggets rank a lowly 26th in opponent two-point shooting percentage (54.3%).

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

Because three pointers carry the potential to swing a game decisively, ranking top-10 in opponent three point shooting percentage will do wonders for your overall team defense. However, while this approach might work against most teams, it will be less effective against the Jazz. Utah ranks second in the league in three point attempts per game, at 40.9, and the Jazz rank 6th in the league in three point shooting percentage, at 36.8%. The Jazz also lead the entire Association in two-point shooting percentage, at 57.3%,

This is a Jazz team that is elite at creating looks from deep, and then converting those looks as well.

📹| Donovan: 31p | 4a | 3 3pm | 3r | 2s#TakeNote | @ZionsBank pic.twitter.com/JRb8G2lHPN

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) January 11, 2022

Meanwhile, Denver has had some trouble of their own at the offensive end, ranking 23rd in the league and averaging just 106.4 PPG. While they are slightly better at home, where they average 108.0 PPG, this would still only move them up to 17th if extrapolated over a whole season.

The Nuggets rank 20th in three-point shooting percentage (34.1%) on 36.1 attempts per game, although they rank third in two-point shooting percentage (55.7%) on 49.9 two-point attempts per game.

The Jazz are a much more balanced team. In addition to being ranked first overall in PPG, they are ranked 12th overall in scoring defense, holding their opponents to 107.6 PPG and an eFG% of 51.3%.

Jazz vs Nuggets Pick

For this matchup, I’m going to take the more balanced team with the better overall record. Yes, Utah has hit a losing streak lately, but they are too good not to bounce back. Both teams have strong defenses, while Utah’s elite volume and proficiency from deep negates one of the best aspects of Denver’s defense.

Bogdanovic is a sniper from long-range (.407% on 6.4 attempts per game), and Denver will not be able to negate his efficiency. Utah’s elite defense will keep Denver’s average offense under 105 points.

Meanwhile, Denver may slow Utah’s explosive offense slightly, but they will still score near their average, which is just over 115 PPG.

Pick: Utah Jazz moneyline (-158), 2u