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Lakers vs Trail Blazers Game 1 Odds and Picks

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 2:22 PM PST

LeBron celebrating
LeBron James is now a heavy MVP frontrunner. (Photo by PI/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
  • Lakers meet Trail Blazers in Game 1 of their First Round series Tuesday
  • Blazers’ 6-2 bubble mark helped clinch final playoff berth in West
  • See the odds, our analysis and best bets for Game 1 below

It’s not your run of the mill 1 vs 8 matchup.

In fact, it’s probably the most anticipated First Round series in recent NBA Playoff memory, as the Portland Trail Blazers (35-39, 8th in West) meet the Los Angeles Lakers (52-19, 1st in West). Game 1 kicks off Tuesday, with all games inside the bubble in Orlando.

Trail Blazers vs Lakers Game 1 Odds

Team Spread at FanDuel Moneyline Total
Portland Trail Blazers +5.5 (-105) +194 O 229.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (-115) -240 U 229.5 (-110)

Odds taken Aug 16th. Tip-off is 9:10pm ET

While the Lakers vs Trail Blazers odds favor LA, Portland is not the same squad that limped into the the COVID-19 break — and neither are the Lakers. Their roster upheaval and uneven play in the bubble makes this opening line interesting.

Who’s Stopping Dame and Company?

Excuse the uneasiness of any LA fan when they know their team will be throwing out (gulp) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Danny Green, and either Dion Waiters or JR Smith to try and slow down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

 

Lillard is playing in the rare air that only the Steph Curry’s and James Harden’s of the world have breathed. In eight bubble games, he averaged 37.6 points and 9.6 assists per game, while shooting a blistering 43.6% from the 3-point line.

McCollum is no slouch, though he is playing through a crazy back injury. He showed what he could do in a killer fourth quarter to end the Grizzlies in the play-in.

Another great subplot is the Carmelo Anthony rebirth. For a dude supposedly washed up, he averaged 15.8 points and 6.3 rebounds while hitting 38.5% from deep.

Portland’s resurgence, however, is powered by the return of center Jusuf Nurkic and fellow big Zach Collins. Nurkic’s interior presence has been massive since returning from a gruesome broken leg. In eight games, he’s averaged better than 17 points, 10 rebounds, four dimes and two blocks a game.

Both players are integral to trying to slow down the Lakers, who usually have a bigs advantage against their opponents.

Who’s Stopping LeBron and Company?

The Lakers are no slouches, as evidenced by their top seeding in the West. Yes, no Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo hurts, but Portland’s losses of Trevor Ariza (opt out) and Rodney Hood (Achilles) leave poor ‘Melo and overmatched Mario Hezonja as the live bodies to try and contain LeBron freaking James.

They may try youngster Wenyen Gabriel, who saw major minutes against Memphis last game, but that’s only because Collins is nursing an ankle injury. Which brings us to the other part of LA’s super duo: Anthony Davis. It’s not an ideal matchup for Nurkic, who will likely be dealing with JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard anyways, and Gabriel or Collins — even healthy — is advantage Lakers all day.

But none of that will matter if the Lakers can’t score, and their shoddy offense led to a 3-5 record in the bubble. While they improved in the later stages, the Lakers were still the second-lowest scoring team in the bubble at just over 106 points a game, and they were dead-last in three point shooting, a paltry 30.3% clip.

It definitely won’t matter if they can’t defend: while their offensive rating plummeted to outside the top-10, the Lakers still held steady in third in defensive rating, and ranked seventh in points allowed per game in the bubble.

Portland scored at a bubble-best 126.0 points a game, while averaging better than 15 threes made per game (2nd), at a 41.4% average (3rd).

Who’s the Best Bet?

While the Lakers aren’t firing on all cylinders, they have LeBron James, who is the most impressive playoff performer since Jordan, and back in the playoffs for the first time since an incredible eight consecutive Finals trips.

While he may have to take on defending Dame or McCollum late in games, there isn’t a player on Portland’s roster that can effectively body him up.

And while LA has struggled offensively, they are going up against a team that bleeds points. The Blazers definitely outscored their defensive woes. They allowed the second-most points per game in the restart, and allowed opponents to shoot a bubble-worst 49.4% from the field and second-worst 43.4% from three.

This has all the makings of over, and one that goes down to the wire.

The pick: Over 229.5 (-110) & Blazers +5.5 (-105)

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