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Lakers vs Heat Game 4 NBA Finals Picks and Odds

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 5, 2021 · 8:30 AM PST

LeBron driving
LeBron and the Lakers will look to right the ship vs the Blazers on Friday night. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
  • Inspired Heat get back into NBA Finals with remarkable Game 3 win over Lakers
  • Jimmy Butler erupts for 40-point triple-double to lift Miami
  • Read below for odds, analysis and our Game 4 prediction

And just like that, we have a series.

Undermanned and playing for their playoff lives, the Miami Heat turned in perhaps the best effort in the entire postseason, beating the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers 115-104 in Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

Game 4 goes Tuesday, and the Heat could have some better luck on the health front, which adds some major intrigue to a series that many felt would be a sweep.

Lakers vs Heat Game 4 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Los Angeles Lakers -7 (-110) -300 O 219 (-110)
Miami Heat +7 (-110) +245 U 219 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel taken October 6th. Game 4 tip-off is Tuesday at 9pm

With plenty on the line in Game 4, the Lakers vs Heat odds are still leaning heavily towards the Purple and Gold. Let’s review and see how you should be betting.

The Butler Did It

It can’t be understated how impressive Jimmy Butler’s performance was in Game 3. Playing again without starters Bam Adebayo (neck/shoulder) and Goran Dragic (foot), Butler willed Miami to victory. When the dust settled, Butler put together a 40-point, 11-rebound, 13-assist triple-double, consistently picking apart the LA defense.

He came through big-time in the clutch, scoring 10 points and dishing out five assists with no turnovers in the fourth quarter. Jimmy Buckets also got to the stripe and hit all four of his free throws, part of an impressive 12-for-14 effort For the game.

That vaunted Heat ‘culture’ was a big reason Miami was even able to compete in this one. After falling behind 2-0 in the Finals, head coach Erik Spoelstra said his team would do whatever was necessary to get back into the series.

After getting dominated in rebounding, Miami held their ground on the glass, losing the rebound battle by a more tenable 43-37 mark. That limited LA’s advantage in second-chance points, scoring only six all game.

Heat starters Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson all scored in double figures while Kelly Olynyk was again their best reserve, dropping 17 and seven boards.

Down 2-1, Miami will likely get Adebayo back. Their all-star center will be a huge addition to the Heat roster, and he should make an immediate impact in Game 4.

Lakers Flat in Ugly Finals Loss

Perhaps what magnified the Heat’s dogged determination was the lack of any kind of killer instinct from the Lakers. LA came out flat and not sharp, falling behind by as many as 13 in the opening quarter and committing 10 turnovers.

LA fought back and closed within four at halftime, but again watched the Heat jump all over them to start the third quarter. The Lakers trailed by as many as 14 before rallying and even took the lead, but that wouldn’t last, as Butler and company overwhelmed them in the fourth quarter.

There was nowhere to hide for Anthony Davis. The guy many were calling the best player in the playoffs laid an egg in Game 3. Davis picked up two quick fouls and four turnovers in the first quarter and never did get into rhythm all game.

He finished with just 15 points and five rebounds. LeBron James also struggled, despite putting up 25 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. He also added a game-high eight turnovers and looked content to play facilitator in the fourth quarter. James only took five shots (the same amount as both Kyle Kuzma and Markieff Morris) and scored five points, while turning it over four times.

As a team, LA shot 43% from the field, and took 42 three-pointers, hitting at only a 33% clip. The team that led the playoffs in paint scoring at 50 a game was outscored 52-34 by the Heat.

What’s the Best Bet?

Consider this a sleepless night loss for the Lakers. If they had just matched Miami’s effort, they could be potentially wrapping this up Tuesday, instead of playing what will be the most important game of the NBA season.

Led by Butler, Miami might be the most confident team in the NBA — and now, this group has their first Finals win, and walked away from it like they had just figured things out. They’ll also be likely welcoming back an all-star to their roster in Adebayo. The Heat are extremely dangerous right now.

But I expect the Lakers’ stars to bounce back, particularly Davis, who looked out of sorts with Miami’s aggressiveness.

This is going to be a must-watch Game 4, and though I expect LA to win, this is not going to be easy.

The pick: Heat +7.5 (-110)

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