Upcoming Match-ups

Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Co-Favorites in Opening 2021 Most Improved Player Odds

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Nov 26, 2020 · 10:19 AM PST

Jamal Murray Nuggets warm up
Who's the best bet to win Most Improved Player? Photo from Icon Sportswire.
  • Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are tied atop the opening Most Improved Player Odds for next season
  • Miami’s second-year guard Tyler Herro is fourth in the betting ahead of Rookie of the Year Ja Morant
  • Where does the betting value lie as the odds open?

The NBA’s Most Improved Player odds have opened. Two young Denver Nuggets stars share the favorite status with Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Tyler Herro and Ja Morant come in at fourth and fifth in the opening odds.

Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram won the award in 2019-20, holding off strong competition from Bam Adebayo, Luka Doncic, Devonte’ Graham and others. Pascal Siakam, who won Most Improved in 2018-19, was in consideration last season, but ultimately fell short.

The table below has the opening odds for 2020-21’s Most Improved Player.

2020-21 NBA Most Improved Player Opening Odds

Player Odds
Jamal Murray +1400
Michael Porter Jr +1400
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1400
Tyler Herro +1600
Ja Morant +1800
Chris Boucher +2400
Coby White +2400
De’Aaron Fox +2400
Deandre Ayton +2400
Derrick White +2400
Jaylen Brown +2400
Lonzo Ball +2400
Christian Wood +3000
Lauri Markkanen +3000
Malik Beasley +3000

Odds taken from FanDuel on November 26th

Murray to Take Next Step

Jamal Murray was a phenomenon in the bubble playoffs. The Denver Nuggets twice came back from 3-1 down to make the Western Conference Finals, and Murray fulfilled the potential that made the Nuggets give him a max rookie extension. If he can keep anywhere near that level of performance in the 2020-21 regular season, he will be an All-Star and well in the mix for Most Improved Player.

The challenge for Murray, though, is that his brilliance in the bubble is fresh in the minds of the voters. Repeating those displays with consistency will earn deserved praise, but does it make him a frontrunner for Most Improved? He might be a much better regular season player than he was in 2019-20 – is that enough to win voters over?

YouTube video

Players who win Most Improved tend to be breakout stars. Ingram hit new heights last season, and Siakam came from nowhere to become an integral player for the Raptors the year before. Expectations are already high for Murray – he needs to play at All-NBA standard if he’s to be a serious Most Improved candidate.

Porter’s Increased Responsibility

Of the two Nuggets youngsters, Michael Porter is a far more intriguing betting option. Michael Malone held Porter back last season. His defense was a problem, and Denver is being cautious with a player who has a dodgy injury history. Malone is unlikely to start using Porter for 30+ minutes per game, but he’s expected to have a much bigger role.

Porter was a joy to watch on the offensive end. He shot over 42% from three, averaged 20 points per 36 minutes and was unafraid to take on contested jumpers. If he gets the minutes, he will put up big numbers in 2020-21.

YouTube video

Swapping Jerami Grant for JaMychal Green could open up a few more minutes in the forward spots, but the main factor in Porter’s development is his defense. He has to prove to Malone that he can get better on that end of the floor. If he becomes even just an okay defender, Porter can become the third star the Nuggets have craved. This is a massive season in his development – his injury history makes him a bit of a risky bet, but if he can stay on the floor (in more ways than one) he’s going to be a serious challenger for Most Improved.

SGA Gets the Ball

Of all the trades Sam Presti has made, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best asset they have received. The Thunder own the draft for the foreseeable future, but there is no guarantee where those picks fall as Gilgeous-Alexander is the future of the franchise.

Playing with Chris Paul was great for his development. The presence of Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder and Danilo Gallinari helped him get some more playoff experience. All four veterans have gone – it’s Gilgeous-Alexander’s turn to lead this team.

The former Clipper took 14.5 attempts per game last season. His usage rate was 23.7%. Over half of his three-point attempts were assisted. Gilgeous-Alexander got time to run the offense last season, but the ball will be in his hands in 2020-21. His usage rate will increase, and fewer of his shot attempts will be assisted.

This season is a huge test of Gilgeous-Alexander. There is potential for a major breakout, an increase in his 19 points per game scoring and 3.3 assists. With limited proven talent around him, though, this could be difficult. Keeping his efficiency at a high level (56.8% true scoring last season) will be challenging.

YouTube video

The Thunder are going to lose a lot. Gilgeous-Alexander has it in him to take a leap, but it’s a major role change after the team he played on last season. With OKC tanking, it’s not the best situation for Gilgeous-Alexander – he needs to score 25+ per game and notch six or seven assists to be a contender for Most Improved.

He’ll have enough ball to record those numbers, but will he cope with the extra offensive responsibility?

Markkanen to Develop, Other Longshots to Watch

Lauri Markkanen’s stock has plummeted over the last year or so. The Chicago Bulls were a team in disarray last season, Markkanen’s role has been altered, and he has been dealing with injuries. Fully healthy heading into the new season and with Billy Donovan brought in as head coach, Chicago will be eyeing the eight seed and will be hoping Markkanen can return to the player that won All-Rookie honors in 2017-18.

YouTube video

The +3000 price is a tempter. Markkanen scored 18 per game in his age-21 season in 2018-19, shooting 36.1% from three and grabbing nine boards per game. He and Wendell Carter Jr. have shown flashes of the coherent frontcourt partnership the Bulls dreamt of.

Chicago is hoping to take a step forward under Donovan this season. Markkanen bouncing back is key. He was one of the most exciting young players in the NBA not so long ago – a regime change could be exactly what he needed.

Markkanen represents the best value in these opening odds. Donte DiVincenzo at +4900 looks a good price, too. The third-year guard should get more minutes with George Hill, Eric Bledsoe and Wesley Matthews departing. Already a plus-defender, DiVincenzo could attract some voters if he improves his shot.

Author Image