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Rockets Still Among Top 2019 NBA Championship Contenders in Spite of Slow Start

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 11, 2020 · 4:41 PM PDT

James Harden
James Harden has led the NBA in scoring in back-to-back seasons. Photo by David Santiago/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Rockets are still in the hunt for the 2019 NBA Championship despite being in the Western Conference cellar
  • Can Mike D’Antoni right the ship and salvage Houston’s season?
  • Did the Rockets shoot themselves in the foot by allowing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute to leave town?

Bookmakers aren’t ready to throw the towel in on the Rockets.

Houston still has the fourth shortest odds to win the 2019 NBA Championship despite stumbling out of the gates with a disappointing 1-5 record. The Rockets trail only the Warriors (-180), Celtics (+690), and Raptors (+900) three weeks into the 2018-19 season.

2019 NBA Championship Average Odds

The Rockets short odds are surprising considering just how out of sync the team has looked during its first six games. Houston is giving up an ungodly 116.3 points per contest, and has the NBA’s seventh worst defensive rating and sixth worst offensive rating. Compare that to a year ago when the Rockets finished in the top seven in both categories.

2019 NBA Championship Odds

Team Odds
Golden State Warriors -165
Boston Celtics +700
Toronto Raptors +900
Houston Rockets +1200
Los Angeles Lakers +2200

So, what gives? Why are the Rockets suddenly one of the NBA’s least competitive teams?

It begins on the defensive end, where Houston is hemmorrhaging points on a nightly basis. Everyone knew the Rockets would miss Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, but it wasn’t clear just how much their absence would be felt until the season began. The Rockets are now allowing opponents to shoot 49% from the floor and score a league-high 59.3 points per game in the paint without their top two defensive wings.

Houston also ranks a distant 13th in opponent second chance points and 19th in opponent fastbreak points. Those last two metrics are generally a matter of effort and they speak volumes about Houston’s lack of heart and hustle.

One of the worst offenders has been Carmelo Anthony, whose -9 plus/minus rating is the second worst on the team. Anthony’s defensive indifference has long been legendary, but he’s been so bad this year that Houston would be better off replacing him with a pylon. The Rockets’ defensive rating is 16.5 points better when he sits on the bench. That’s an eye-popping stat and further evidence that Mike D’Antoni needs to restrict Melo’s minutes moving forward.

To his credit, D’Antoni understands Houston’s many issues, and has vowed to overhaul the team’s defensive strategy, beginning with the amount of switching on the perimeter.

“You know, some of the new guys and some of the other guys never switched before …so it’s different, but that’s not an excuse,” D’Antoni said following the Rockets’ 133-113 blowout loss to the Clippers. “We just weren’t good. We’ll make some adjustments in the next two days. We have to figure it out. We got to play better than this. I don’t know if we’ll be a great defensive team the way we are right now, but we can be a lot better than this.”

Houston has also been undone by injuries and suspensions. The Rockets lost Chris Paul for two games after his scuffle with Lakers irritant Rajon Rondo on October 20th. Not surprisingly, they lost both games while he sat on the sidelines. They’ve also been forced to play without James Harden after he tweaked his hamstring against the Jazz. Once again, they lost both games.

Should you Still Wager on Houston?

It’s easy to blame Houston’s struggles on the absence of Paul of Harden, but the Rockets have been awful even when both players have suited up. That was evident in their opening night loss to New Orleans when they allowed the Pelicans to score 131 points on 53% shooting from the floor. Houston has looked like a shell of the team that won 65 games last year and pushed the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.

The Rockets have enough firepower on offense to still win 50 games this season, but they lack the gritty role players and commitment to defense to enjoy another deep playoff run.

Avoid betting big on Houston and consider sprinkling a little money on the Raptors instead at +900. Toronto is unbeaten this season when Kawhi Leonard plays and ranks in the top 10 in offensive rating, defensive rating, points per game, and effective field goal percentage. Nick Nurse’s team is long and athletic and comes at you in waves thanks to its exceptional balance and depth.

The 2019 NBA Championship will likely be won by the Warriors, but the Raptors are the one team that could make them sweat.

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