Nuggets Western Conference Odds Shorten to +700 as Denver Owns 7-3 Record
- Denver are 7-3 over their first 10 games
- Only Lakers and Jazz have won more in West
- Nikola Jokic has been criticised early on by pundits across the league
An early mover in the NBA Conference odds, the Denver Nuggets have seen their price to win the West shorten over the first few weeks of the campaign.
The Nuggets are still considerably behind the three frontrunners in the Western Conference market, but they’re gradually becoming a real option for bettors alongside the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers.
Denver’s Western Conference odds are an interesting betting topic to keep an eye out for over the coming weeks.
NBA 2019-20 Western Conference Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | +200 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +225 |
| Houston Rockets | +500 |
| Denver Nuggets | +700 |
| Utah Jazz | +1000 |
Odds taken Nov. 12.
What’s Happened to Nikola Jokic?
An arduous summer might be to blame for Nikola Jokic’s sluggish start to the season. The All-NBA center has been well below his usual standard, and whatever the justification, it’s a real issue for any Nuggets backers.
The Joker’s points, assists, rebounds and effective field goal percentage have all dropped notably from last season. In what was meant to be an MVP contending campaign for the seven-foot Serbian, he’s facing the same old questions about his conditioning and all-too often cutting a frustrated figure on the floor.
His effort defensively has been woeful, contesting a similar number of shots at the basket per game to James Harden and Lonzo Ball.
There have been moments when Jokic has returned to his 2018-19 self, making big plays in fourth quarters. He’s still posting decent numbers, but they’re a long way short of what was expected this year, and this current standard isn’t sufficient for the Nuggets to be taken seriously as Western Conference challengers.
Jokic is their only true star. He’s shooting a measly 22.4% from deep and ranks outside the top 40 players in the NBA in PER. Denver need this to be no more than an early season slump.
Strange Schedule
Denver’s schedule, like most in the West, hasn’t been too friendly. Their losses, however, have come against supposedly inferior opponents in the Mavericks, Pelicans and Hawks. They’ve also beaten the Sixers, Heat and Suns. The concern generated by the losses arguably outweighs the positives of the victories – there’s no shame in losing to a 42-point night from Trae Young.
Trae stared down the Nuggets bench after this nasty nutmeg and bucket ? pic.twitter.com/5uAw3AgiOo
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 13, 2019
Of their regulation wins, only one team has broken the 100-point mark. Portland scored 100 on opening night, since then, Denver have held the Kings, Heat, Magic and Sixers to under 100 in 48 minutes and kept the Timberwolves to 98 including overtime. The defensive rating is eighth-best in the NBA, an improvement on last season.
The Atlanta game is different from the rest. Denver’s defense was poor, owning a 119 defensive rating in the game and a 121 offensive rating. A superman effort from Young might prove to be an outlier, but the 56 points given up in the paint is a more serious concern with Jokic’s current defensive effort. The mediocre shooting is also a worry: The Nuggets went 11-for-41 from deep against the Hawks – they’re 28th in field goal percentage.
Options Aplenty For Malone
Mike Malone might just have the deepest roster in the league, which has played a part in Denver’s solid start. Their starting five is a massive +15.7 per 100 possessions, and while the bench has started the season poorly (second-worst net rating in the league), there is enough talent there to expect significant improvement. Denver’s bench was seventh in the same category last season.
Although it’s taken time for him to earn minutes from Malone, Michael Porter Jr. has looked more than comfortable as an NBA player so far. It’s a matter of time until he earns a bigger role, having not played more than nine minutes since scoring 15 on debut.
When it comes to challenging the superstar-loaded Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, the Nuggets will be reliant on their bench improving drastically. Monte Morris, Jerami Grant and Malik Beasley all need to score more efficiently.
West Is a Big Ask
There are too many question marks to see value in the Nuggets at +700. This team needs to be performing at its very best, with a deep bench and elite defense, if they are to seriously challenge the Lakers and Clippers.
Denver’s status as dark horses becomes more interesting if their shooters can find some form and Jokic looks a bit more like the player who averaged 20-11-7 last season.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
