Upcoming Match-ups

Rockets vs Hornets Odds and Picks

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 10:21 AM PST

Victor Oladipo
Is Victor Oladipo's stay in Houston destined to be a short one? Photo from Keith Allison - Wiki Commons.
  • The Houston Rockets and Charlotte Hornets meet on Monday, February 8th
  • Devonte Graham’ is questionable for Charlotte, while Christian Wood is out for Houston
  • Get the latest betting odds, preview and a pick below

The Charlotte Hornets and Houston Rockets matchup for the first time this season on Monday night. Houston is 11-11 on the season, but they face a Hornets team which has exceeded expectations to sit 11-13.

Despite beating Washington on Sunday, Charlotte is 1-2 on this home stand so far, following losses to the Sixers and Jazz.

Houston is without center Christian Wood (ankle). Charlotte could see Devonte’ Graham (groin) miss out again. Houston is narrowly favored for this one.

Houston Rockets vs Charlotte Hornets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Rockets -2 (-110) -122 Over 222 (-110)
Charlotte Hornets +2 (-110) +104 Under 222 (-110)

Odds taken on Feb 8th from FanDuel

Ball Movement Meets Elite Defense

The Houston Rockets have been the best defense in the NBA since they dealt James Harden. Houston’s defensive rating is comfortably clear as number one over their last 10 games. They face a Charlotte team which leads the league in assists. The Hornets are eighth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five. Although not headlined by a big-name star, the Hornets have plenty of offensive talent and they share the ball as well as any team in the league.

Eight Hornets are scoring 9.5 or more points per game. Seven Hornets are registering at least 2.1 assists per game. James Borrego has built an offense without selfish play, an offense that makes the extra pass and takes advantage of the amount of shooting on the roster without throwing up reckless threes. They are ninth in three-point makes, but only 13th in three-point attempts.

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With such ball movement comes turnovers, however. They are just 17th in turnovers per game, and this will be an area the Rockets focus on – Houston is fifth in the NBA in steals over their last 10. The Rockets have also done a good job defending the three over that span, leading the league in opponent perimeter shooting percentage (32.2%).

Rockets Cool Down

Houston has lost two of three after winning six in a row. The injury to Christian Wood has weakened them significantly, but they have also suffered some woefully cold shooting from their starters. Victor Oladipo, Demarcus Cousins, P.J. Tucker and Jae’Sean Tate combined for 10-for-35 from the field in the loss to the Spurs. The defeat to Oklahoma City saw the team hit under 40% of their field goals.

These games are going to happen. This is a collection of players with a point to prove, but it’s also a team with several players searching for consistency. It’s a long time since Wall, Oladipo, Eric Gordon and Cousins have put together a prolonged period of productive performances. There are going to be peaks and troughs as they all search to get somewhere close to their peak levels again.

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How they shoot the ball will be interesting against Charlotte. The Hornets are in the bottom three in the league in opponent three point attempts and opponent three-point attempts over the last 10.

Charlotte ranks near the bottom of the league in transition points given up. Houston is in the top five in pace, but they are 22nd in transition offensive efficiency – this will be a big part of Monday’s game.

High-Scorer

Houston has hit the over three times out of five with a rest advantage. Charlotte are 4-2 for the total over with a rest disadvantage. Small samples, of course, but the extra rest should work in Houston’s favor here. It’s a bit surprising to see them as just two-point favorites at FanDuel, even after the Hornets blew out Washington on Sunday.

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The Rockets will be energized to get out and run. Against a Charlotte team which has struggled on the defensive end of late, the Rockets should be able to put up big numbers. LaMelo Ball’s place in the starting line-up has weakened them defensively – both Oladipo and Wall will go out Ball whenever the opportunity presents.

This should be played at a good pace. Even with Houston’s high defensive standards of late, there’s value in the points over, and the Rockets look a great bet to cover given their extra rest.

Pick: Houston Rockets -2 and over 222 (+254)

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