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Rockets, Nuggets & Jazz Odds to Win Western Conference Fade; Can They Challenge the LA Teams?

Ryan Sura

by Ryan Sura in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 9:53 AM PDT

James Harden crouched
James Harden's Rockets have seen their odds fade to win the West (Photo by David Santiago/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Jazz, Nuggets & Rockets have all seen their odds to win the Western Conference take a sudden fade in the last few weeks
  • Meanwhile the Lakers have shortened to +110 as LeBron James has strengthened his MVP campaign
  • Can any team stand in the way of the Los Angeles Lakers winning the Western Conference?

With less than 20 games left in the regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers have taken control over the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Clippers are nipping at their heels in second place, winning seven out of their last eight games.

Do the Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, or Utah Jazz pose any threat to one of the LA teams running away with the Western Conference title?

In the current Western Conference odds, the Lakers are the listed favorites at +110 with the Clippers not far behind at +200. Let’s take a look and see if any of the other competitive teams in the West are worth throwing some change on.

Odds to Win the Western Conference

Team Odds
Los Angeles Lakers +110
Los Angeles Clippers +200
Houston Rockets +800
Denver Nuggets +1200
Utah Jazz +1400
Dallas Mavericks +2000
Oklahoma City Thunder +2500
New Orleans Pelicans +6600

Odds taken March 11th

Rockets Need to Reach New Heights

The Houston Rockets have been trending down recently. For example, the Rockets lost four straight games recently and three of those losses came at the hands of the New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, and Orlando Magic. People love to point fingers at Russell Westbrook and James Harden, but is that really what the problem is?

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In 35.9 minutes per game, Westbrook is averaging 27.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game in 53 contests this season. Westbrook and Harden account for 61.9 of the 118.1 points per game that the Rockets average.

The Rockets have the third shortest team in the NBA, with an average height of 6’5″. Especially with Clint Capela being traded to the Atlanta Hawks before the trade deadline, the Rockets starting lineup is clearly lacking height.

The tallest player in their starting lineup is Robert Covington at 6’7″. Not only that, but they have just one actual center on their roster in Tyson Chandler, and he has only played 26 games this season.

Teams have started to take advantage of the Rockets’ small-ball style. Not only did the Magic exploit the rebounding advantage against the Rockets, but so did the Knicks. In Houston’s most recent loss to New York, they were out-rebounded 65-34. Stay clear of the Rockets on this wager.

Jazz Lack Firepower

I thought a lot of people were way too high on the Utah Jazz before the regular season started, and I still believe that to be true. In mid-August, the Jazz were +800 to win the West but now find themselves at +1400.

The Mike Conley experiment in Utah has not gone well, but he is not the only one to blame here. Conley should not be the only starter put on blast because it is their entire starting lineup that is the problem.

After winning five games in a row, the Jazz lost their most recent game to the Raptors 101-92 in which every starter not named Conley had a +/- of at least -20…not great.

The Jazz are 8.5 games behind the Lakers, which in my mind puts them out of reach of winning the conference.

The Nuggets and Best Bet

The Denver Nuggets are probably the only team that can potentially catch the LA teams at this point. Denver is 6.5 games behind the Lakers, but are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The one important thing that really stands out to me is that they are 25-8 at home and are 10-1 against their division this season.

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The Nuggets have one of the most balanced lineups in the NBA and they proved that in their rout of the Milwaukee Bucks 109-95. Yes, Giannis was not playing, however, the point dispersion throughout their lineup is very small.

Their defense has been questioned, but they give up 107.4 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NBA. At +1200, the Nuggets are my value play for this wager.

The Lakers at this point are still my best bet. The Clippers have been turning it on recently, but they were shut down by LeBron and the Lakers easily. It is going to take a lot to stop the Lakers at this point.

Best Bet: Los Angeles Lakers +110

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