Sacramento Kings Win Total Inflates to 38.5; Should You Bet on the Under at -115?
- Fast-paced Sacramento Kings are hard to pin down
- Kings win total has improved to 38.5
- Read below for our prediction on the Kings’ regular season finish
On the back of an exciting 2018/19 season, the Sacramento Kings are among a group of teams eyeing the bottom two or three playoff spots in the brutal Western Conference.
With the league wide-open going into the new campaign, NBA win totals have been a hot topic of discussion all summer. Sportsbooks recently improved Sacramento’s win total to 38.5. The Kings, who have averaged 32.6 wins per season over the last three years, won 39 games in 2018/19 and fell well short of a postseason spot despite being in contention for much of the year.
Sacramento Kings 2019 NBA Win Total Odds
| Win total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 38.5 | -115 |
| Over 38.5 | -105 |
Roster Turnover
A busy offseason saw former Lakers head coach Luke Walton replace Dave Joerger on the bench. That was just the start of the turnover, however, with Willie Cauley-Stein departing for the Golden State Warriors and several fringe players, such as Kosta Koufos, also leaving the team.
Veterans Richaun Holmes, Trevor Ariza, Corey Joseph and Dewayne Dedmon all signed in free agency. Harrison Barnes, who declined his player option, put pen to paper on a four-year, $85 million deal. The former Warrior will likely start at the three but could well play some four in smallball line-ups if Walton looks to get De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield on the floor together.
This is a deep Kings roster, combining a talented young core with NBA experience. Issues can come with depth, however. Giving development time to Marvin Bagley, while keeping the veterans happy, will be a difficult task for Walton.
Have fun guarding De'Aaron this year. ?
(via @SacramentoKings) pic.twitter.com/KOh0J9Z8Jm
— SLAM (@SLAMonline) October 4, 2019
Back the Under?
The increase in the Kings’ win total will make many bettors consider backing the under. Although the roster has improved, and the Kings will be optimistic that Fox and Bagley can take another leap, this season could be a challenging one.
The Western Conference isn’t just star-studded, it’s also incredibly deep. With even the Suns likely to improve, there are no easy wins. The Memphis Grizzlies are the only franchise clearly rebuilding right now. Sacramento’s -115 price to win fewer than 38.5 games might seem a bit harsh after winning 39 last season, but it’s more of a reflection on their opponents than it is on their progress.
With an inexperienced core, and Walton needing to figure his roster out, it’s not impossible the Kings end up around the 35 or 36-win mark.
Building on Last Season
While another sub-.500 season is certainly possible, there’s plenty of upside for the Kings that makes the over at -105 tempting. Excluding garbage time, their record was what their scoring margin suggested last season. Their position in the standings wasn’t misleading.
Their electric, fast-break game will continue to cause teams problems. They have outside shooting to open up lanes for Fox. It will be more predictable this season, but that doesn’t make it easy to stop. A second-season breakthrough from Bagley would take the team to another level.
The playoff drought could still extend even if they hit the over. It’s easy to convince yourself of the Kings’ potential, but ultimately the number of good-to-very-good teams in the West make the under the safer bet unless we see Fox go from exciting young talent to All-Star.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
