Suns Open as 5.5-Point Favorites vs Bucks in Game 1 of 2021 NBA Finals

• Game 1 of the NBA Finals is set for Tuesday at 9 pm ET between Milwaukee and Phoenix
• The Suns have won 11 of their past 13 games, covering in 10 of those contests
• Read below for opening odds analysis and a prediction on which way the line will move leading up to tip-off

The NBA Finals is set. The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Phoenix Suns in a battle of two teams looking to end lengthy title droughts. Milwaukee hasn’t won a championship since 1971, while Phoenix has never won the title in its 53-year existence.

Game 1 goes Tuesday in Phoenix, with tip-off set for just after 9 pm ET in the Desert.

Bucks vs Suns Opening Odds – Game 1

Odds as of July 3rd.

The Suns opened as 5.5-point favorites, in a game that features a total of 217. Phoenix was +2500 to win the NBA Championship prior to Round 1, while Milwaukee was priced at +800.

THE FINALS IS SET!

Bucks. Suns. Who ya got? 👀 pic.twitter.com/XQYkejZf6C

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) July 4, 2021

Now, with the Finals matchup set, the Suns’ title odds are -149, while the Bucks’ are +125 despite speculation that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be back for Game 1.

Expect Giannis to Return

It was all doom and gloom when Giannis went down midway through Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals with a hyperextended knee, but the Bucks displayed some impressive resiliency by winning back-to-back games to close out Atlanta.

Did it together. pic.twitter.com/UlZBC2rjko

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 4, 2021

The buzz around the NBA was that Antetokounmpo would be ready should the ECF go to a Game 7, so there’s a strong chance he’ll be on the floor in Game 1 of the Finals.

Without the two-time MVP, Milwaukee relied heavily on Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez, and the trio did not disappoint.

Put some respect on Khris' name. pic.twitter.com/wmz3AHINnH

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 4, 2021

They combined for 156 points in Games 5 and 6 leading the Bucks to a pair of convincing wins. They’ve now won 8 of 10 games without Giannis, in which the rest of their starting lineup has been in tact, proving they’re more than just the Greek Freak.

Suns Enter On Fire

Phoenix meanwhile, enters the Finals having won 11 of 13 games. They finished off the Los Angeles Clippers in six games to win the West, led by Chris Paul. The 16-year vet poured in 41 points in the series clincher, despite revealing afterwards that he’s been playing with torn ligaments in his right hand.

Perk believes Chris Paul's Finals run is one of the most impressive ever 👀

(via @KendrickPerkins) pic.twitter.com/OGqsdZujau

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) July 1, 2021

The Suns haven’t played since Wednesday, and the added rest will surely benefit Paul. Devin Booker played through a broken nose in the Western Conference Finals to average 25.5 points per night, while Deandre Ayton averaged 17.8 points and 13.7 boards versus the Clips. Ayton has racked up a double-double in 11 of Phoenix’s 16 playoff games thus far, and will have his hands full with the Bucks big men. If there’s a knock on the Suns it’s their lack of size, as Ayton is one of just two rotational players that stands taller than 6’8″.

Line Will Move Towards Bucks

At first glance, the opening line is too high for a pair of reasons. First, it suggests Giannis won’t play. Milwaukee’s title odds were three times shorter than Phoenix’s before the playoffs started, and if Antetokounmpo was healthy either the Bucks would be favored, or the line would be close to a pick’em.

This is what we play for. #NBAFinals pic.twitter.com/CqTXHpXuDB

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 4, 2021

Second, the Suns were 4 and 4.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 of the WCF at home against a Clippers team missing Kawhi Leonard, and Milwaukee is a much more balanced team than LA is without its biggest star. They dominated the Hawks without Giannis, and have proved numerous times this season they can win if he’s not on the court.

If Antetokounmpo is declared fit to play, this line will move sharply in the Bucks favor, and even if he sits, enough money will come in on an undervalued Milwaukee team to move the number. If you like the Bucks act now, because the price is only going to get worse.