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Thunder Look to Lock Up Playoff Spot Against Heat

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 8, 2018 · 12:47 PM PDT

Russell Westbrook shooting over Marcin Gortat
Russell Westbrook won the NBA MVP award in 2017. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • In regular season game 81, the Thunder try to lock down a playoff berth
  • Should Miami try to move down from sixth, to battle the injury-riddled Celtics?
  • Westbrook chasing down another triple-double season

Two teams that nobody wants to face in the playoffs go head-to-head Monday (April 9th) with plenty still on the line in Miami, as the Heat (43-37, 25-14 Home) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-34, 20-20 Away).

OKC’s playoff math is simple: win and you’re in. Sure, lose and it would still take a massive upset loss in their regular season finale against the Grizzlies to slide right out of the postseason. All things being equal, they’d likely prefer a win now. Judging by their performance Saturday night in Houston, they should be locked in for this one.

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Also, Russell Westbrook is averaging 9.9 rebounds a game heading into the final games of the year. A couple of big rebounding games could push him back into another triple-double season. Interestingly enough, he’s nowhere in the vicinity of MVP talk.

Miami could have a path to the Conference Final without having to see LeBron James. As a bettor, this makes things tricky.

Meanwhile, Miami is in the playoffs, but, there is an interesting path developing. They currently sit in sixth, and have a potential date with the upstart 76ers if the standing stayed the same.

But, if they are somehow able to drop down just a spot to the 7-seed, they’d get a shot at the physically decimated Celtics. Get past them, and they’d play the winner of Philly-Milwaukee/Washington.

Simply put, Miami could have a path to the Conference Final without having to see LeBron James. As a bettor, this makes things tricky.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Team Stats

OFFENSE

Thunder
VS
Heat
107.3 Offensive Rating 104.5
107.4 Points 103.4
21.2 Assists 22.7
45.3 Field-Goal Percentage 45.5
35.2 Three-Point Percentage 36.1
99.1 Pace 97.7
+3.0 Plus/Minus +0.7

DEFENSE

Thunder
VS
Heat
104.7 Defensive Rating 103.9
104.4 Points 102.7
+2.9 Rebounding Differential +0.3
-1.7 Turnover Differential 0.0
5.1 Blocks 5.3
45.8 Field-Goal Percentage 45.0
36.7 Three-Point Percentage 36.0
44.1 Points In The Paint 44.6
The Miami Heat are hoping Dwyane Wade can be their closer in tight games come playoff time. By Keith Allison (Flickr) <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0">CC License</a>
The Miami Heat are hoping Dwyane Wade can be their closer in tight games come playoff time. By Keith Allison (Flickr) CC License

Head-to-Head Results

Date Location Score Winner
March 23 OKC 105-99 OKC

These two are a classic contrast in styles, and both were on display in their only matchup of the year. The ‘system’ Heat are seemingly in almost every game, anchored by a strong defense (4th in points allowed and 6th in field goal percentage) but a woefully lacking offense, way down at 24th in points scored. This was also after bringing back Dwyane Wade, a goodwill move with the desperate hope of squeezing a final run in the closer role for the decorated all-star.

Meanwhile, the ‘stars’ of the Thunder didn’t play that well of a game, but one of them, Russell Westbrook, caught fire to carry them in the crunch. Russ potted 17 in the final frame to put the close game on ice for OKC. Miami simply doesn’t have that star power to carry them home every contest.

 Notable Injuries and Absences

Thunder Heat
No Injured Players No Injured Players

Straight Up Advice: Thunder (111-103)

The Thunder are coming off a game where Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and Westbrook combined for 70 points, en route to snapping Houston’s 20-game home winning streak. It’s an effective formula when they’re clicking, not just for them, but for the rest of the team, as the hierarchy naturally funnels the Jerian Grants, Patrick Pattersons and Corey Brewers into the roles that they should be playing.

OKC also enjoyed a big rebounding advantage in their only meeting, topping Miami 51-41. Expect Steven Adams to lead the brigade again, against Hassan Whiteside or anyone they choose to replace him with.

The Thunder to eventually take control of this one, while the Heat toe the line of respectably losing, eyeing the bigger prize of a date with the Celtics, sans Kyrie and Hayward.

 Team Trends

Thunder Heat
Oklahoma City is 20-20 SU on the road Miami is 25-14 SU at home
Oklahoma City is 5-5 SU in its last ten games Miami is 6-4 SU in its last ten games
Oklahoma City is 19-10 SU in non-conference games Miami is 13-16 SU in non-conference games
Oklahoma City is 19-26-0 ATS after a win Miami is 18-21-4 ATS after a win
Oklahoma City is 32-46-1 ATS this season (41.0%) Miami is 39-35-6 ATS this season (52.7%)
Oklahoma City is 16-22 ATS on the road Miami is 23-15-2 ATS at home

Additional SU Picks (April 9th)

There are a total of nine games on the NBA slate on Monday night. We’ve got SU picks for the other games being played.

 Match-Up SU Pick
Raptors vs Pistons Raptors
Bulls vs Nets Bulls
Cavaliers vs Knicks Cavaliers
Magic vs Bucks Bucks
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Timberwolves
Kings vs Spurs Spurs
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Nuggets
Pelicans vs Clippers Pelicans

 

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