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Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics Preview and Predictions

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 30, 2018 · 12:38 PM PDT

DeMar DeRozan sizes up his defender before going to the rack. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) CC License
  • Raptors head into Boston with their sights set on the 1-seed in the East
  • Celtics trying to get healthy before the playoffs
  • Expert analysis for this marquee match-up, plus straight up picks for all five games on tap

The Toronto Raptors (55-20, 24-13 Away) have their sights set on home court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, and they’ll get a chance to end any late push by the Celtics (52-23, 24-13 Home) as they head to Boston for an eventful matchup Saturday night.

It’s going to be a telling five days for the conference-leading Raptors, who will face Boston again on April 4 – with those two games sandwiching a tilt with LeBron James and the Cavaliers for good measure.

Win out, and there’s not a problem … but hit the skids, and Toronto’s three-game lead could dwindle in a hurry. Now’s not the time for a crisis in confidence, but the Raptors have been unimpressive in their last six games, losing to OKC, Cleveland and the Clippers, while dusting the Magic, Nets and Nuggets. A couple of marquee wins should alleviate any fears of a postseason swoon.

It starts at the top. DeMar DeRozan was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season but he’s been slowed of late with a thigh injury. In his last nine games, he’s scoring just 18.8 per, and shooting at just 40 per cent from the field.

Meanwhile, the Celtics have been getting it done with spare parts, and will continue to have to make ends meet while Kyrie Irving (and insert other Celtics currently battling nagging injuries here) works his way back into the lineup.

But Boston’s strength – besides their top-shelf team defense, holding teams to just over 100 points per game – is their equal opportunity offense. Since Irving’s been out, check out their scoring leaders as they’ve gone 6-2:

  • Terry Rozier (3)
  • Jayson Tatum (2)
  • Marcus Morris
  • Al Horford
  • Jaylen Brown

Team Stats

OFFENSE

Raptors
VS
Celtics
111.6 Offensive Rating 105.4
112.5 Points 104.2
24.2 Assists 22.5
47.3 Field-Goal Percentage 45.0
36.2 Three-Point Percentage 37.8
100.1 Pace 98.2
+8.1 Plus/Minus +4.1

DEFENSE

Raptors
VS
Celtics
103.6 Defensive Rating 101.2
104.4 Points 100.2
+1.2 Rebounding Differential +0.6
-1.4 Turnover Differential -0.2
6.1 Blocks 4.6
45.1 Field-Goal Percentage 43.7
35.9 Three-Point Percentage 33.9
48.5 Points In The Paint 39.0

Head-to-Head Results

Date Location Score Winner
Nov. 12 BOS 95-94 BOS
Feb. 6 TOR 111-91 TOR

 Notable Injuries and Absences

Raptors Celtics
No Injured Players Kyrie Irving (knee): OUT
Gordon Hayward (ankle): OUT
Al Horford (ankle): DAY-TO-DAY
Marcus Morris (ankle): DAY-TO-DAY

 Team Trends

Raptors Celtics
Toronto is 24-13 SU on the road Boston is 24-13 SU at home
Toronto is 7-3 SU in its last ten games Boston is 7-3 SU in its last ten games
Toronto is 19-9 ATS as road favorite Boston is 5-1 ATS as home underdog
Toronto is 36-9 SU in conference games Boston is 30-15 SU in conference games
Toronto is 28-26 ATS after a win Boston is 29-20-1 ATS after a win
Toronto is 40-35 ATS this season (53.3%) Boston is 45-27-2 ATS this season (62.5%)
Toronto is 21-16 ATS on the road Boston is 19-16-2 ATS at home

Celtics Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown has helped pick up the slack while Kyrie Irving is injured. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) CC License

Prediction: Raptors (111-99)

If there is one thing the Raptors have been able to hang their hat on all year, it’s having the deepest team in the NBA. Their second unit ranks third in the NBA in scoring, pumping in 42 points a game, while shooting 47-percent from the field and 35-percent from beyond the arc.

Those figures are eerily close to the starters’ output (47-percent and 36.8 from 3pt range), meaning there is literally no drop-off in play throughout a 48-minute contest.

That interchangeability gives Dwayne Casey the luxury of riding the hot hand du jour to go alongside Kyle Lowry and DeRozan during closing time. That could be Fred VanVleet, CJ Miles and Serge Ibaka; perhaps it’s Delon Wright with Jonas Valanciunas and OG Anunoby; or maybe it’s Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakham and Norman Powell. It’s lineup flexibility unmatched in the NBA.

For now, it’s up to the young guys to keep Boston in games. The duo of Tatum and Rozier has combined for around 34 points a game in their last 10, gaining valuable experience from getting the big-boy reps in big-game situations. Brown, fresh from the concussion protocol, is working his way back into the mix quite nicely …

YouTube video

Perhaps it’s as simple as this: if Boston’s league-best three-point defense (surrendering just nine makes a contest at under 34 per cent) can keep the Raptors contained, they could pull an upset.

It’s something that they’ve yet to do this year, though, as Toronto has hit 27 moneyballs in their two previous games, at an astounding 44.5-percent clip.

Or maybe even simpler: Toronto scores 112.5 points a game, the Celtics muster just 104 per. Toronto gets cooking early, and takes this one handily.

Straight-Up Picks (March 31)

There are four other games in the NBA on Saturday, including the reeling Warriors trying to get healthy and back to their dominant selves against the Kings.

Check back with us as we near the opening tip for up-to-date odds from our top betting sites.

 Match-Up SU Pick
Hornets vs Wizards Wizards
Pistons vs Knicks Knicks
Nets vs Heat Heat
Warriors vs Kings Kings
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