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Tuesday NBA Trends, Picks & Parlay – Big Night for Overs

Chris Sheridan

by Chris Sheridan in NBA Basketball

Updated Jun 1, 2021 · 10:50 AM PDT

Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard & the Blazers look to win Game 5 on the road on Tuesday. (Photo from Jevone Moore, Icon Sportswire)
  • There’s three playoff games for NBA bettors to take in on Tuesday night
  • End of the season for Boston tonight against stacked Brooklyn Nets? Lakers on the ropes with Anthony Davis hurting for Game 5 in Phoenix? Is Nikola Jokic going to be stymied in assist column again?
  • Chris Sheridan breaks down the games and trends you should keep an eye on in the column below

Big night in the NBA playoffs, and the thing that benefits bettors most is that we have a body of postseason work to look at when choosing which picks to make. And there are some distinct trends that will make those picks a lot easier – if those trends hold.

The basics: the Brooklyn Nets are poised to send the Boston Celtics packing for the summer, and it should not be much of a contest. The spread is Brooklyn -12.5, the biggest line we have seen in the 2021 postseason.

The Lakers are tied 2-2 with the Phoenix Suns, and Anthony Davis is highly questionable to play because of a groin injury. Even if he toughs it out, he will not be 100 percent.

The Portland-Denver series is tied at two games apiece and is looking like an instant classic. Game 5 is in the Mile High City, but if Nikola Jokic cannot get his usual number of assists, the Nuggets are in trouble.

Celtics vs Nets Game 5 Odds

Team Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total Points
Boston Celtics +12.5 (-110) +600 O 233 (-115)
Brooklyn Nets -12.5 (-110) +160 U 233 (-105)

All odds as of June 1st

Why Is The Line So High?

The Nets dropped 141 points on the Celtics a couple of nights ago, with Kevin Durant going for 42, Kyrie Irving getting 39 and James Harden dishing 18 assists to go with his 23 points. Irving had a water bottle tossed at him after leaving the court, which came after he showed a little disrespect to the Celtics leprechaun logo, drawing the ire of Kevin Garnett.

Interestingly, the fan who threw the water bottle and was arrested on a felony charge was wearing a Garnett jersey.

The Celtics are 15-20-0 against the spread on the road, and the Nets have been beastly in this series with all of their players back. The over/under is 232, and both teams go over more than under: The Nets are 20-16-0 at home on over/unders, and Celtics are 19-17-0 on road over/unders. The last three games in the series have gone over by 38.5 (Game 4), by 17 (Game 3) and by 10 (Game 2).

Lakers vs Suns Game 5 Odds

Team Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total Points
Los Angeles Lakers +5 (-110) +170 O 208 (-115)
Phoenix Suns -5 (-110) +200 U 208 (-105)

Anthony Davis injured his groin muscle during Game 4, and the Lakers got little from anyone not named LeBron James in losing by 9 points. All of Phoenix’s starters reached double figures, as did reserve Cameron Payne, while the Lakers had four starters in single digits and got a total of 42 points from their reserves, nearly equaling the starters’ 50.

The big sportsbooks have taken tons of championship wagers on the Lakers throughout the season. Lakers Nation likes to wager, and the books have had to keep their odds short in order to protect against an LA championship. But this is not the same team that won the title a year ago. Rajon Rondo was a killer off the bench, Danny Green was an outstanding defender, and Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee and Avery Bradley were productive role players.  They are all gone.

L.A. is now going up against a Phoenix team with a backcourt, Chris Paul and Devin Booker, that the Lakers simply cannot defend – especially now that Paul’s shoulder appears healed.

The Suns are favored by 5 and are 23-13-0 ATS at home, the third-best in the league. The Lakers are 18-17-0 ATS on the road. On over/unders, the Suns are 21-15-0 at home while the Lakers are 12-22-2 on the road. The over/under has been set at 207.5, by far the lowest line of the series, and the Lakers are going to go to the free throw line a lot if form holds, because they have shot more free throws in three of the four games, with significant advantages in two of those games.

Blazers vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds

Team Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total Points
Portland Trail Blazers +2 (-110) +115 O 227 (-105)
Denver Nuggets -2 (-110) -135 U 227 (-115)

There have been three overs in this series, followed by an under in Game 4 because the Blazers have figured out how to keep Nikola Jokic from getting his usual number of assists. He has had just one in two of the games, which is extremely odd for the MVP shoo-in and a triple-double machine.

Denver is 21-14-1 on overs at home, and Portland is 19-16-1 on overs on the road. Both coaches will be pulling out all the stops to take a 3-2 edge. Denver is 16-20-0 ATS at home, and Portland is 23-13-0 ATS on the road.

This is the toughest one to bet because the teams are evenly matched, but Denver has not gotten much from Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon, making Austin Rivers a key player. That is the same Austin Rivers who played for six teams in the past three seasons.

So What Is The Play? A Five-Way Parlay

Some nights you stick with the trends. Brooklyn-Boston should be a shootout, with Kyrie stoked. The Celtics are on their last legs, so giving the points and taking the over seems prudent. The Lakers are on the ropes, too. You never want to bet against LeBron James, but sometimes you cannot ignore the fact that his supporting cast is lacking. The under is too low because the refs are going to put him on the line to keep it close.

The 5-point line seems about right. The Blazers as a 2-point road ‘dog looks nice, but buy an extra half-point for insurance. The over has hit in four of the past five games between these teams, with plenty of room to spare.

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