Updated NBA Finals MVP Odds After Game 5 – Butler Moves to +600, LeBron Still Favored

• Another masterful performance from Jimmy Butler has forced the NBA Finals to Game 6
• Butler’s price to win Finals MVP has shortened as a result but LeBron James remains the heavy favorite
• Is there value in backing Butler after an epic Game 5?

The NBA season isn’t over just yet. The Miami Heat took Game 5 on Friday to force the series to a sixth game, and Jimmy Butler’s odds to win Finals MVP have moved in drastically as a result.

Butler was a lengthy +2800 to take Finals MVP after Game 4. The talk was of LeBron James’ legacy, and the Lakers wrapping up the title in the Black Mamba jerseys. The series has taken another twist with Miami’s Game 5 win, and Butler’s price to win Finals MVP has shortened massively; he’s now +600, having been out at +2800 just a few days ago.

Anthony Davis, considered a serious contender for the award after the first two games, has slid all the way to +2500. The All-NBA big man re-aggravated a foot contusion in Game 5 and his health is a major concern for the Lakers as they look to wrap the series up on Sunday.

As Davis becomes no more than an outsider, LeBron James’ odds have moved shorter still. He’s now just -900 to win a fourth Finals MVP, having been -450 after Game 4.

NBA Finals MVP Odds

Odds taken from FanDuel on October 10.

Butler’s Second Masterpiece

Jimmy Butler made history in Game 3. He was comparatively becalmed by Anthony Davis in Game 4. Butler isn’t used to being the dominant scorer, but with the Heat’s series on the line, he embraced that role once again on Friday. The former Philadelphia 76er finished with 35 points on 11-for-19 shooting and went a perfect 12-for-12 from the charity stripe.

It was a second triple-double of the series for Butler, and he added five steals for good measure. He played all but 48 seconds of the game too, leaving him visibly exhausted when going through his post-game media commitments. This was an everything on the line performance from one of the NBA’s fiercest competitors.

The 2020 NBA Finals features one of the best duels between two stars that we have seen. We have been used to these kinds of performances from LeBron James for a long time, but in this series Jimmy Butler has risen to that level and been every bit as good. Game 6 should be great!

— Stan Van Gundy (@realStanVG) October 10, 2020

Our last NBA Finals MVP odds piece discussed the repeatability of Butler’s Game 3 gem. He did it again on Friday, and if he can get close to that level in a win on Sunday, there will be a compelling case for Butler to win the award whether Miami wins the series or not.

James Does His Thing

Davis was hobbled. The Lakers’ role players were not making shots (they went 14-for-46 from the field). LeBron James stepped up in a big way, finding a means to score when the Lakers needed it most. The three-time champion finished with 40 points on 15-for-21, including six-for-nine from deep. It’s James’ best three-point shooting game in the Finals.

If LeBron forces the shot and misses, all of you would be tweeting out screenshots with Danny Green in a bright red circle, don’t lie.

— Paolo Uggetti (@PaoloUggetti) October 10, 2020

Had Danny Green knocked down the potential game-winner, or had Markieff Morris passed at the buzzer, the talk would be how James led his team majestically in a clinching game once again. Instead, the Lakers and James are under pressure to close this out on Sunday to avoid the lottery of a Game 7.

If the Lakers wrap this up in six, James will win his fourth Finals MVP. Any question of Davis pipping him to the final individual award of the season has faded, but Butler is now a threat.

Value On Jimmy

Jerry West remains the only player in NBA history to win Finals MVP on the losing side. That was the first Finals MVP given out back in 1969. History suggests the Heat must win for Butler to get enough votes, but these are unique circumstances. Forcing this Lakers team to seven games, without Goran Dragic and with Bam Adebayo not at 100% once he returned, would be a mammoth achievement.

i’m gonna spend the next 100 years wondering what would’ve happened if he’d have just thrown it to a wide open lebron to win the championship pic.twitter.com/QlDi0ZNS1J

— Shea Serrano (@SheaSerrano) October 10, 2020

It needs to go seven, and LeBron would need to be quiet in both games. If LeBron struggles in the next two, Miami has probably won the series and Butler has Finals MVP.

Wagering on Butler to win Finals MVP is a vote against LeBron as much as it is for Butler. It’s relying on James dropping off, and requires Butler to repeat his Game 5 outing twice more. With only Saturday to recover, will he have the energy to go as hard on Sunday?

The +600 price is too short for Butler. He and Miami still have a mountain to climb.