In Spite of Winning Game 5, Warriors’ Odds to Advance to WCF Worsen Thanks to Durant Injury

• The Golden State Warriors lead the Houston Rockets 3-2
• Kevin Durant has been ruled out for the remainder of the series with a leg injury
• James Harden is second in the playoffs with 31.3 points per game behind only Durant
  

  ---

Want to know the importance of Kevin Durant to the Golden State Warriors?  They won Game 5 against the Houston Rockets but saw their series odds worsen with the news Durant is done for the series.

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Playoff Series Odds

*Odds taken 05/09/19

There’s less value betting Houston today than there was before Game 5, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value. With the news Durant won’t return in the series, could it be advantage Rockets? For my money, the answer is yes.

Breaking: Kevin Durant has suffered a mild calf strain on his right calf and is out for the rest of the series vs Houston, sources tell @wojespn. He will be re-evaluated next week. pic.twitter.com/pZ8QcotnFj

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 9, 2019

The Case for the Rockets

The home team is 5-0 so far in this series, so with or without Durant on the floor, it was always reasonable to expect Houston to force a Game 7. Without him in the lineup, I think it’s a damn near lock that James Harden and company will force a win-or-go-home game at Oracle Arena this weekend.

The home team is 5-0 so far in this series, so with or without Durant on the floor, it was always reasonable to expect Houston to force a Game 7.

Harden is averaging 31.3 points per game in the playoffs which is second most to – guess who – Durant. He is now clearly the best player on the floor going forward. Steph Curry is averaging only 23.5 points per game and has looked uncharacteristically out of sorts since suffering a finger injury earlier in the series.

"When Kevin Durant's not playing the Warriors aren't better, they're different and their different is damn good… They're 29-4 when KD doesn't and Steph does play. Don't tell me Houston's got this series." — @ColinCowherd pic.twitter.com/5LIj2XFy98

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) May 9, 2019

Some talking heads will point to the Warriors 29-4 record when Durant doesn’t play and Curry does, but that’s not taking into account this injured version of the two-time MVP. Golden State suddenly looks beatable and when you also take into account the loss of DeMarcus Cousins earlier, they are running out of options to combat the powerful Rockets.

Can Harden Change the Narrative?

Harden has a reputation similar to that of Spurs star DeMar DeRozan. He’s more than capable of scoring in bunches in the regular season and early in playoff series, before wilting away when it matters most.

Last year the Rockets had two chances to eliminate the Warriors and Harden shot a combined 6 for 25 from behind the arc and was one of the main reasons they flamed out. In a season where he averaged 36.1 points per game in the regular season I absolutely expect him to own the moment and change how people view him. With no Durant, Cousins and a weakened Curry, if he can’t do it this time it’s possible he never will.

I'm disappointed in James Harden and CP3 tonight pic.twitter.com/F8H5i4hMiC

— Stephen A Smith (@stephenasmith) May 9, 2019

The Final Verdict

Golden State is battle tested and have two chances to close it out so they can’t be written off completely. But I think this series is much closer to a coin flip and possibly even advantage Houston.

The fact you can still get them at +195 makes it value too good to pass up. Take Harden and the Rockets and get ready to cheer for a new NBA Champion in 2019.

Pick: Houston Rockets (+195)