Warriors Still Listed as -240 Favorites to Advance to WCF After Rockets Even Series
- The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors are tied 2-2 in their second-round series
- Last year, James Harden shot only 17% in the final three games against the Warriors
- Kevin Durant leads all playoff scorers at 35.4 PPG
The Houston Rockets were left for dead after losing the first two games of their series with the Golden State Warriors, but after another win in Game 4, all of a sudden we have a series.
Updated Rockets vs Warriors Series Price
| Team | Rockets vs Warriors Series Odds |
|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | -240 |
| Houston Rockets | +200 |
*odds taken 5/7
The series will now go at least six games, which is good news for the NBA.
Can Houston Win 4 of 5?
Could the Rockets actually come back from 0-2 down to win the series? After falling behind 2-0, they needed to win four of the next five, a seemingly impossible task.
Holding serve at home means they now just need to win two of the final three, but the task is still too large. I still see value on the Warriors at -240 to advance.
The Case Against The Rockets
The Rockets will go as far as James Harden takes them and, no matter how many regular season awards he racks up, that’s a scary proposition in the playoffs.
Harden has been known to shrink in a big way in tight games and it’s tough to imagine him being any different at the end of this series.
Last year, with a chance to knock out the Warriors, Harden was 6 for 35 (17%) on 3 pointers in the last three games of the series. The year before? He was 2 for 9 and had only 10 points as the Rockets lost their final game to the Spurs by 39 points.
Harden hasn’t only been unable to close series, he’s actually been a hindrance to the Rockets. Any time a star disappears like that on multiple occasions, I join the “I’ll believe it when I see it” side. I’ll assume he’s going to go full Harden at the end of this series, and his track record suggests the best-of-seven ends in a Golden State victory.
The Case For The Warriors
Kevin Durant is not only the best player in this series, he’s the best player in basketball right now (sorry Giannis!). He leads the playoffs scoring at 35.4 points per game, which is 3.1 more than any other player.
If this series comes down to Durant vs Harden, I will take the player that has won back to back NBA Finals MVPs.
“He’s the best player in the NBA hands down. It’s not close” – Patrick Beverley on Kevin Durant (via @nbatv) pic.twitter.com/cNZpgfXvJz
— Ball Don't Stop (@balldontstop) May 6, 2019
Another reason to love Golden State? They are tied in this series and we haven’t seen anything close to the best from Steph Curry or Klay Thompson.
Curry has averaged 21.3 points per game in the series and Thompson is at just 15.3 PPG. These are players with multiple championship rings that should definitely contribute more as this series wears on.
Even if you believe Harden can keep up with Durant, you need to give an edge to the Warriors’ supporting cast.
The Final Verdict
The odds have changed since Game 3 in Houston’s favor, and that’s reasonable. But the Warriors were 30-11 at home this year and the Rockets were only three games over .500 on the road. Home-court advantage has mattered in this series with the home side owning a 4-0 record and I think it will continue to matter.
Take the Warriors at -240.
PICK: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-240)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
